Our model vs the market’s price.

How the public market prices this match, shown next to our model. For context only — it never changes a signal.

Our engine

What our AI model sees

Season averages

2.0

–

1.3

Season average total: 3.25 goals

The market

Public / market price

1X2 probabilities

10%

45%

45%

Monza winDrawNapoli win

Market call

Double chance : Draw or Napoli

Strength rating and xG.

Elo is overall team strength. xG is the goals an average team would score from the same chances.

Overall strength (Club Elo)

One strength number built from every result a team has had. Higher means stronger.

Monza

1544

Napoli

1780

Napoli are the stronger side — 236 rating points clear of Monza.

Goals vs xG

In attackIn defence

xG = goals an average team would score from the same chances. Scoring well above xG means clinical finishing (or a hot streak).

Monza

Goals scored

1.88

Expected (xG)

1.69

Scoring in line with their xG

Per game · last 8 matches

Napoli

Goals scored

1.70

Expected (xG)

2.09

Wasteful — scoring below their xG

Per game · last 10 matches

Goals scored and conceded.

Per-game averages this season. Use the buttons to split the goals by venue.

Goals per game

OverallHome gamesAway games

Both teams across every game this season.

MonzaNapoli

1.88Goals scored / game1.63

2.25Goals conceded / game1.25

How reliable, all season

Whole season, home and away combined — Monza 8 games, Napoli 8 games.

MonzaNapoli

13%Games with a clean sheet38%

0%Games they failed to score13%

Their recent form.

Monza

Struggling for results

Last 5

2W · 0D · 3L

TorinovMonza

3–2

L

MonzavCagliari

4–0

W

LaziovMonza

3–1

L

MonzavSassuolo

2–1

W

LeccevMonza

3–2

L

Napoli

Inconsistent on the road

Last 5

2W · 2D · 1L

NapolivAS Roma

3–3

D

VeneziavNapoli

1–0

L

NapolivFrosinone

3–0

W

FiorentinavNapoli

1–1

D

NapolivBologna

1–0

W

Where they sit in the table.

Serie A (Italy) standings · both teams highlighted in context.

#

Team

P

W

D

L

GD

Pts

1

Inter

8

7

1

0

+13

22

2

Lazio

8

7

1

0

+11

22

3

AS Roma

8

5

3

0

+13

18

4

AC Milan

8

5

3

0

+9

18

5

Como

8

5

2

1

+7

17

6

Frosinone

8

4

2

2

+4

14

7

Juventus

8

4

2

2

+3

14

8

Torino

8

4

1

3

+2

13

9

Cagliari

8

4

1

3

-3

13

10

Napoli

8

3

2

3

+3

11

11

Atalanta

8

3

1

4

-1

10

12

Lecce

8

3

0

5

-5

9

13

Bologna

8

2

2

4

-2

8

14

Sassuolo

8

2

2

4

-4

8

15

Monza

8

2

1

5

-3

7

16

Genoa

8

2

1

5

-7

7

17

Udinese

8

1

1

6

-9

4

18

Fiorentina

8

1

1

6

-10

4

19

Parma

8

1

1

6

-10

4

20

Venezia

8

1

0

7

-11

3