Winlytics.AI
Kicks off in 2d 19h
Primeira Liga (Portugal)
·
Moreirense
Moreirense
10th · 11 pts·LWDLW
vs
—
Estrela
Estrela
12th · 10 pts·WDLLL
The story

Moreirense host Estrela with one point separating them

Separated by a single point after nine Primeira Liga matches, Moreirense and Estrela meet looking to arrest their recent slumps.

Match news & current form

Moreirense sit 10th on 11 points after nine games as they navigate a tight mid-table start. Form has dipped with one win, one draw, and three defeats in their last five outings across all competitions, including a 1-0 home loss to Gil Vicente in their previous league match.

Estrela occupy 12th on 10 points after nine fixtures, having also managed one win, one draw, and three losses in their last five matches. They arrive on poor momentum, having lost three straight games without scoring, most recently falling 2-0 at home against Casa Pia.

Head-to-head history

Moreirense hold the recent upper hand in this fixture, going unbeaten across their last three meetings with Estrela. That run includes a 3-2 home victory in their most recent clash in May 2026, following consecutive draws of 0-0 and 1-1.

Hot stats & streaks
  • Estrela have lost three consecutive matches in all competitions without scoring a single goal.
  • Moreirense have lost only one of their last five competitive meetings with Estrela.
  • The last encounter between these two sides produced a five-goal thriller, ending 3-2 to Moreirense in May 2026.
Key players & missing men

Neither side has any confirmed absentees on the official injury register. Gambian defender Gilberto Batista remains a central presence in the Moreirense backline alongside Dinis Pinto as they aim to shut down an Estrela attack that has gone cold.

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Every market on this match, priced and ranked.

Our model prices every market we cover on Moreirense vs Estrela and ranks them by the edge against the bookmakers’ price. Subscribers see the full board.

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Market cross-check

Our model vs the market’s price.

How the public market prices this match, shown next to our model. For context only — it never changes a signal.

Our engine
What our AI model sees
Season averages
Moreirense1.6
–
2.0Estrela
Season average total: 3.63 goals
The market
Public / market price
1X2 probabilities
45%
45%
10%
Moreirense winDrawEstrela win
Market call
Double chance : Moreirense or Draw
Elo rating & xG

Strength rating and xG.

Elo is overall team strength. xG is the goals an average team would score from the same chances.

Overall strength (Club Elo)

One strength number built from every result a team has had. Higher means stronger.

Moreirense
1479
Estrela
1403

Moreirense are the stronger side — 76 rating points clear of Estrela.

The scoring picture

Goals scored and conceded.

Per-game averages this season. Use the buttons to split the goals by venue.

Goals per game

Both teams across every game this season.

MoreirenseMoreirenseEstrelaEstrela
1.22Goals scored / game1.56
1.78Goals conceded / game1.89
How reliable, all season

Whole season, home and away combined — Moreirense 9 games, Estrela 9 games.

MoreirenseMoreirenseEstrelaEstrela
11%Games with a clean sheet0%
33%Games they failed to score33%
Head-to-head

Past meetings.

Moreirense
3–2
Estrela
Estrela
0–0
Moreirense
Moreirense
1–1
Estrela
Estrela
2–1
Moreirense
Moreirense
2–2
Estrela
Form check

Their recent form.

Moreirense
Moreirense
Mixed bag at home
Last 5
2W · 1D · 2L
EstorilvMoreirense
1–3
W
MoreirensevGIL Vicente
0–1
L
Vitória SCvMoreirense
1–1
D
MoreirensevMaritimo
3–1
W
MoreirensevBenfica
0–4
L
Estrela
Estrela
Struggling for results
Last 5
1W · 1D · 3L
EstrelavCasa Pia
0–2
L
AroucavEstrela
1–0
L
EstrelavAcademico Viseu
0–2
L
Rio AvevEstrela
3–3
D
EstrelavSC Braga
2–1
W
League standings

Where they sit in the table.

Primeira Liga (Portugal) standings · both teams highlighted in context.

#
Team
P
W
D
L
GD
Pts
1
FC PortoFC Porto
9
9
0
0
+17
27
2
BenficaBenfica
9
7
1
1
+18
22
3
Sporting CPSporting CP
9
5
3
1
+10
18
4
Santa ClaraSanta Clara
9
5
3
1
+7
18
5
AroucaArouca
9
5
2
2
+5
17
6
Academico ViseuAcademico Viseu
9
5
2
2
+2
17
7
GIL VicenteGIL Vicente
9
4
2
3
+1
14
8
AlvercaAlverca
9
3
2
4
+0
11
9
SC BragaSC Braga
9
3
2
4
-2
11
10
MoreirenseMoreirense
9
3
2
4
-5
11
11
FamalicaoFamalicao
9
2
4
3
+3
10
12
EstrelaEstrela
9
2
4
3
-3
10
13
Vitória SCVitória SC
9
2
2
5
+0
8
14
MaritimoMaritimo
9
2
2
5
-10
8
15
NacionalNacional
9
2
1
6
-8
7
16
Casa PiaCasa Pia
9
2
1
6
-12
7
17
Rio AveRio Ave
9
2
1
6
-13
7
18
EstorilEstoril
9
0
2
7
-10
2