Winlytics.AI
Full time
Primeira Liga (Portugal)
·
Nacional
Nacional
15th · 4 pts·LLLLL
vs
Alverca
Alverca
10th · 8 pts·LDLWW
The story

Nacional seek home comfort against winless Alverca

Nacional aim to pull further clear of the bottom two while Alverca visit Madeira desperate to end a five-match winless start to the campaign.

Match news & current form

Nacional sit 12th on 4 points, currently six points and seven places off the Conference League spots with 29 games remaining. They return to the Estadio da Madeira following a 0-2 defeat at Sporting CP, looking to replicate the form that saw them beat Estoril 2-0 in their last home outing.

Alverca occupy 17th place and sit inside the relegation zone after picking up just two points from their opening five fixtures. While Sergio Ferreira’s side has been competitive in front of goal, scoring five times, they are yet to taste victory this season and come into this following a 1-2 home loss against SC Braga.

Head-to-head history

Recent encounters between these two sides have been tightly contested, with both teams recording 1-0 home wins in their two meetings during the 2025/26 campaign. Nacional took the spoils in Madeira in April 2026, mirroring Alverca's victory in the reverse fixture in December 2025.

Hot stats & streaks
  • Alverca are on a seven-match winless league run stretching back to last season.
  • The visitors have managed just one win in their last 11 away fixtures since the turn of the year.
  • Alverca have conceded 10 goals in their first five matches, the highest among the bottom-dwellers.
  • Nacional have kept a clean sheet in their last two home meetings with Alverca.
Key players & missing men

Alverca's tactical options are limited by the absence of midfielder Sabit Abdulai and defender Julian Martinez, both of whom are sidelined with knee injuries. French defender Bastien Meupiyou also remains out of contention, having missed the last three matches since being forced off against Estrela Amadora in August.

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Market cross-check

Our model vs the market’s price.

How the public market prices this match, shown next to our model. For context only — it never changes a signal.

Our engine
What our AI model sees
Season averages
Nacional1.6
1.9Alverca
Season average total: 3.54 goals
The market
Public / market price
1X2 probabilities
45%
45%
10%
Nacional winDrawAlverca win
Market call
Winner : Nacional
Elo rating & xG

Strength rating and xG.

Elo is overall team strength. xG is the goals an average team would score from the same chances.

Overall strength (Club Elo)

One strength number built from every result a team has had. Higher means stronger.

Nacional
1451
Alverca
1444

Evenly matched on rating.

The scoring picture

Goals scored and conceded.

Per-game averages this season. Use the buttons to split the goals by venue.

Goals per game

Both teams across every game this season.

NacionalNacionalAlvercaAlverca
1.00Goals scored / game1.29
2.14Goals conceded / game1.57
How reliable, all season

Whole season, home and away combined — Nacional 7 games, Alverca 7 games.

NacionalNacionalAlvercaAlverca
14%Games with a clean sheet14%
43%Games they failed to score14%
Head-to-head

Past meetings.

Nacional
1–3
Alverca
Nacional
1–0
Alverca
Alverca
1–0
Nacional
Form check

Their recent form.

Nacional
Nacional
Losing form badly
Last 5
0W · 0D · 5L
NacionalvFamalicao
0–4
L
NacionalvAlverca
1–3
L
Sporting CPvNacional
2–0
L
NacionalvEstrela
2–3
L
Vitória SCvNacional
1–0
L
Alverca
Alverca
Inconsistent on the road
Last 5
2W · 1D · 2L
AlvercavRio Ave
1–0
W
NacionalvAlverca
1–3
W
AlvercavSC Braga
1–2
L
AlvercavSanta Clara
1–1
D
Sporting CPvAlverca
3–1
L
League standings

Where they sit in the table.

Primeira Liga (Portugal) standings · both teams highlighted in context.

#
Team
P
W
D
L
GD
Pts
1
FC PortoFC Porto
7
7
0
0
+15
21
2
BenficaBenfica
7
5
1
1
+15
16
3
Sporting CPSporting CP
7
4
3
0
+9
15
4
Santa ClaraSanta Clara
7
4
3
0
+7
15
5
AroucaArouca
7
3
2
2
+3
11
6
SC BragaSC Braga
6
3
2
1
+2
11
7
Academico ViseuAcademico Viseu
7
3
2
2
+0
11
8
EstrelaEstrela
7
2
4
1
+0
10
9
GIL VicenteGIL Vicente
6
2
2
2
+0
8
10
AlvercaAlverca
7
2
2
3
-2
8
11
MaritimoMaritimo
7
2
2
3
-4
8
12
MoreirenseMoreirense
7
2
2
3
-6
8
13
FamalicaoFamalicao
7
1
4
2
+2
7
14
Vitória SCVitória SC
7
1
2
4
-3
5
15
NacionalNacional
7
1
1
5
-8
4
16
Rio AveRio Ave
7
1
1
5
-10
4
17
Casa PiaCasa Pia
7
1
1
5
-13
4
18
EstorilEstoril
7
0
2
5
-7
2