Nacional seek home recovery against resilient Estrela
Nacional look to bridge the gap to the European spots while Estrela aim to translate their unbeaten start into a first league victory.
Nacional sit 8th with four points, trailing the European places by just two points. They have shown character early in the campaign, notably fighting back from 2-0 down to salvage a point against Santa Clara and securing a 2-0 home win over Estoril. However, they enter this fixture looking to bounce back from a narrow defeat in their last outing.
Estrela occupy 11th place and remain unbeaten, though they are searching for their first win after consecutive 2-2 draws. Their resilience has been the talking point of the opening weeks, having taken points off Sporting CP and Alverca. Manager Vasco Matos will view this as a prime opportunity to secure a maiden three points and move closer to the top six.
Our model vs the market’s price.
How the public market prices this match, shown next to our model. For context only — it never changes a signal.
1.8
Strength rating and xG.
Elo is overall team strength. xG is the goals an average team would score from the same chances.
One strength number built from every result a team has had. Higher means stronger.
Nacional are the stronger side — 48 rating points clear of Estrela.
Goals scored and conceded.
Per-game averages this season. Use the buttons to split the goals by venue.
Both teams across every game this season.
NacionalEstrelaWhole season, home and away combined — Nacional 7 games, Estrela 7 games.
NacionalEstrelaPast meetings.
Their recent form.
Where they sit in the table.
Primeira Liga (Portugal) standings · both teams highlighted in context.
