Winlytics.AI
Kicks off in 2d 13h
Serie A (Italy)
·
Napoli
Napoli
8th · 14 pts·WLDWL
vs
—
Lazio
Lazio
1st · 28 pts·WWWWW
The story

Leaders Lazio travel to Napoli after five straight wins

Pacesetters Lazio will look to extend their perfect recent run when they visit an inconsistent Napoli side at the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.

Match news & current form

Napoli sit 8th with 14 points after 10 games, having experienced a patchy start to the campaign. Massimiliano Allegri's side suffered a 2-0 defeat away at Juventus last time out, leaving them with two wins, a draw and two defeats from their last five matches.

Lazio, by contrast, have made a flying start and sit 1st on 28 points from their opening 10 matches. They enter this clash on a five-game winning streak in Serie A, most recently edging Cagliari 2-1 after an emphatic 6-2 victory at Sassuolo.

Head-to-head history

Lazio have had the upper hand in recent clashes, winning three of the last five meetings between the sides. That run includes a 2-0 victory on their last trip to the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona in April 2026, as well as a 3-1 home win in December 2024, with Napoli's sole win in that sequence coming via a 2-0 scoreline in Rome in January 2026.

Hot stats & streaks
  • Lazio have won each of their last five Serie A fixtures.
  • Lazio have scored two or more goals in each of their last five matches.
  • Napoli's last home league fixture produced six goals in a 3-3 draw with AS Roma.
  • Lazio have taken victory in three of the last five competitive meetings between these sides.
Key players & missing men

Napoli will have to cope without central defender Alessandro Buongiorno, forcing reshuffles in Allegri's back line, while Alex Meret is set to start in goal. Lazio are without the injured Patric in defence, but they arrive with high-flying attacking options including Andrea Pinamonti, Gustav Isaksen and Tijjani Noslin.

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Our model prices every market we cover on Napoli vs Lazio and ranks them by the edge against the bookmakers’ price. Subscribers see the full board.

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Market cross-check

Our model vs the market’s price.

How the public market prices this match, shown next to our model. For context only — it never changes a signal.

Our engine
What our AI model sees
Season averages
Napoli1.3
–
2.0Lazio
Season average total: 3.33 goals
The market
Public / market price
1X2 probabilities
10%
45%
45%
Napoli winDrawLazio win
Market call
Double chance : Draw or Lazio
Elo rating & xG

Strength rating and xG.

Elo is overall team strength. xG is the goals an average team would score from the same chances.

Overall strength (Club Elo)

One strength number built from every result a team has had. Higher means stronger.

Napoli
1780
Lazio
1703

Napoli are the stronger side — 77 rating points clear of Lazio.

Goals vs xG

xG = goals an average team would score from the same chances. Scoring well above xG means clinical finishing (or a hot streak).

NapoliNapoli
Goals scored
1.80
Expected (xG)
2.20
Wasteful — scoring below their xG
Per game · last 10 matches
LazioLazio
Goals scored
2.40
Expected (xG)
1.91
Clinical — scoring above their xG
Per game · last 10 matches
The scoring picture

Goals scored and conceded.

Per-game averages this season. Use the buttons to split the goals by venue.

Goals per game

Both teams across every game this season.

NapoliNapoliLazioLazio
1.70Goals scored / game2.40
1.30Goals conceded / game0.80
How reliable, all season

Whole season, home and away combined — Napoli 10 games, Lazio 10 games.

NapoliNapoliLazioLazio
30%Games with a clean sheet40%
20%Games they failed to score0%
Head-to-head

Past meetings.

Napoli
0–2
Lazio
Lazio
0–2
Napoli
Lazio
2–2
Napoli
Napoli
0–1
Lazio
Lazio
3–1
Napoli
Injuries & suspensions

Who’s out.

Napoli
A. Buongiorno
Out · Jumpers Knee
Lazio
Patric
Out · Sprained Ankle
Form check

Their recent form.

Napoli
Napoli
Mixed bag at home
Last 5
2W · 1D · 2L
JuventusvNapoli
2–0
L
MonzavNapoli
1–4
W
NapolivAS Roma
3–3
D
VeneziavNapoli
1–0
L
NapolivFrosinone
3–0
W
Lazio
Lazio
On a strong winning run
Last 5
5W · 0D · 0L
LaziovCagliari
2–1
W
SassuolovLazio
2–6
W
LaziovParma
2–1
W
JuventusvLazio
0–3
W
LaziovMonza
3–1
W
League standings

Where they sit in the table.

Serie A (Italy) standings · both teams highlighted in context.

#
Team
P
W
D
L
GD
Pts
1
LazioLazio
10
9
1
0
+16
28
2
InterInter
10
8
1
1
+13
25
3
AS RomaAS Roma
10
7
3
0
+18
24
4
ComoComo
10
7
2
1
+10
23
5
AC MilanAC Milan
10
6
3
1
+9
21
6
FrosinoneFrosinone
10
6
2
2
+10
20
7
JuventusJuventus
10
5
2
3
+3
17
8
NapoliNapoli
10
4
2
4
+4
14
9
BolognaBologna
10
4
2
4
+1
14
10
TorinoTorino
10
4
1
5
-2
13
11
GenoaGenoa
10
4
1
5
-4
13
12
CagliariCagliari
10
4
1
5
-6
13
13
AtalantaAtalanta
10
3
2
5
-4
11
14
LecceLecce
10
3
0
7
-10
9
15
ParmaParma
10
2
2
6
-7
8
16
FiorentinaFiorentina
10
2
2
6
-8
8
17
SassuoloSassuolo
10
2
2
6
-10
8
18
MonzaMonza
10
2
1
7
-7
7
19
UdineseUdinese
10
1
2
7
-12
5
20
VeneziaVenezia
10
1
0
9
-14
3