Winlytics.AI
Full time
Serie A (Italy)
·
Napoli
Napoli
9th · 7 pts·WLLWD
vs
Udinese
Udinese
13th · 4 pts·DWLLL
The story

Napoli eye silver medal as Udinese target top ten

Napoli require just one point to guarantee a second-place finish in their season finale against a Udinese side chasing a rare top-half spot.

Match news & current form

Napoli sit 2nd on 73 points and head into the final day needing a draw to secure the runners-up spot behind Inter Milan. Antonio Conte’s side responded to a recent 3-2 home loss against Bologna by cruising to a 3-0 victory over Pisa last weekend, though their form at the Stadio Maradona has stuttered with two defeats in their last three home games.

Udinese occupy 10th place with 50 points, having already secured safety and fallen out of the European race. Kosta Runjaic has overseen significant progress this term, and while they lost 1-0 to Cremonese last time out, a win here could lift them to 9th. Reaching 51 points would represent their best Serie A return since the 2012-13 campaign.

Head-to-head history

Napoli have dominated this fixture at home, winning 31 of the 49 meetings in Naples and remaining unbeaten in 14 of the last 15 hosted clashes since 2011. However, Udinese won the reverse fixture 1-0 earlier this season and are now bidding to complete only their second-ever league double over the Partenopei.

Hot stats & streaks
  • Napoli went 26 league matches unbeaten at home before losing two of their last three at the Maradona.
  • Udinese have seen fewer than 2.5 goals in seven of their last ten league matches.
  • Napoli have suffered only one defeat in their last 19 Serie A meetings with Udinese.
  • The visitors are looking to surpass the 50-point mark for the first time in 13 years.
Key players & missing men

Scott McTominay is expected to play a vital role in midfield, with his late runs into the box essential as Napoli cope without the injured Romelu Lukaku and David Neres. Udinese travel south with a depleted squad; Jurgen Ekkelenkamp, who scored the winner in the reverse fixture, is sidelined alongside Nicolo Zaniolo, Hassane Kamara, and Alessandro Zanoli.

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Market cross-check

Our model vs the market’s price.

How the public market prices this match, shown next to our model. For context only — it never changes a signal.

Our engine
What our AI model sees
Season averages
Napoli2.3
2.0Udinese
Season average total: 4.25 goals
The market
Public / market price
1X2 probabilities
45%
45%
10%
Napoli winDrawUdinese win
Market call
Double chance : Napoli or Draw
Elo rating & xG

Strength rating and xG.

Elo is overall team strength. xG is the goals an average team would score from the same chances.

Overall strength (Club Elo)

One strength number built from every result a team has had. Higher means stronger.

Napoli
1780
Udinese
1646

Napoli are the stronger side — 134 rating points clear of Udinese.

Goals vs xG

xG = goals an average team would score from the same chances. Scoring well above xG means clinical finishing (or a hot streak).

NapoliNapoli
Goals scored
1.70
Expected (xG)
1.72
Scoring in line with their xG
Per game · last 10 matches
UdineseUdinese
Goals scored
1.50
Expected (xG)
1.47
Scoring in line with their xG
Per game · last 10 matches
The scoring picture

Goals scored and conceded.

Per-game averages this season. Use the buttons to split the goals by venue.

Goals per game

Both teams across every game this season.

NapoliNapoliUdineseUdinese
1.40Goals scored / game1.60
1.20Goals conceded / game2.20
How reliable, all season

Whole season, home and away combined — Napoli 5 games, Udinese 5 games.

NapoliNapoliUdineseUdinese
40%Games with a clean sheet0%
0%Games they failed to score20%
Head-to-head

Past meetings.

Napoli
1–0
Udinese
Udinese
1–0
Napoli
Napoli
1–1
Udinese
Udinese
1–3
Napoli
Udinese
1–1
Napoli
Form check

Their recent form.

Napoli
Napoli
Mixed bag at home
Last 5
2W · 1D · 2L
FiorentinavNapoli
1–1
D
NapolivBologna
1–0
W
IntervNapoli
3–2
L
NapolivComo
1–2
L
GenoavNapoli
0–2
W
Udinese
Udinese
Struggling for results
Last 5
1W · 1D · 3L
UdinesevCagliari
0–1
L
IntervUdinese
5–3
L
UdinesevLazio
1–2
L
MonzavUdinese
2–3
W
UdinesevComo
1–1
D
League standings

Where they sit in the table.

Serie A (Italy) standings · both teams highlighted in context.

#
Team
P
W
D
L
GD
Pts
1
AS RomaAS Roma
5
4
1
0
+11
13
2
InterInter
5
4
1
0
+7
13
3
LazioLazio
5
4
1
0
+5
13
4
CagliariCagliari
5
4
0
1
+3
12
5
AC MilanAC Milan
5
3
2
0
+6
11
6
FrosinoneFrosinone
5
3
1
1
+5
10
7
JuventusJuventus
5
3
1
1
+4
10
8
ComoComo
5
3
1
1
+3
10
9
NapoliNapoli
5
2
1
2
+1
7
10
SassuoloSassuolo
5
2
1
2
+0
7
11
AtalantaAtalanta
5
2
0
3
-2
6
12
LecceLecce
5
2
0
3
-5
6
13
UdineseUdinese
5
1
1
3
-3
4
14
TorinoTorino
5
1
1
3
-3
4
15
ParmaParma
5
1
1
3
-3
4
16
MonzaMonza
5
1
1
3
-4
4
17
FiorentinaFiorentina
5
1
1
3
-6
4
18
BolognaBologna
5
0
2
3
-3
2
19
GenoaGenoa
5
0
1
4
-7
1
20
VeneziaVenezia
5
0
0
5
-9
0