Winlytics.AI
Full time
Premier League (England)
·
Newcastle
Newcastle
9th · 8 pts·DWDLW
vs
Liverpool
Liverpool
6th · 9 pts
The story

Fresh starts at St James' Park as new managers debut

A new era begins for both clubs as Newcastle United host Liverpool with both sides looking to secure their first points of the campaign and establish early European credentials.

Match news & current form

Newcastle United enter the season under the guidance of Matthias Jaissle, who joins after a successful stint in Saudi Arabia where he remained unbeaten at home. Currently 9th with 38 games remaining, the Magpies are aiming to extend a solid opening-day record that has seen them avoid defeat in their first league match for four consecutive seasons.

Liverpool arrive at St James' Park with Andoni Iraola making his managerial debut for the Reds. Occupying 6th place at the start of the term, Iraola brings a personal 18-game unbeaten streak from his previous role. However, the visitors must address poor away form from the 2025-26 season, which ended with a 1-1 draw at Brentford and nine total losses on the road.

Head-to-head history

Liverpool have dominated this fixture recently and are currently unbeaten in their last 19 Premier League matches against Newcastle, a run that includes 14 victories. The most recent encounter in January 2026 saw the Reds claim a 4-1 win at Anfield, though Newcastle have scored in each of their last seven home games against all opposition.

Hot stats & streaks
  • This fixture is just two goals away from becoming only the third in Premier League history to reach 200 total goals.
  • Liverpool are unbeaten in their opening Premier League match in each of the last 13 seasons, dating back to 2012-13.
  • Newcastle have both scored and conceded in seven consecutive Premier League matches at St James' Park.
  • Andoni Iraola has never lost a Premier League meeting against Newcastle in six previous attempts.
Key players & missing men

No fresh injuries have been reported for either side ahead of this opening clash. All eyes will be on how Jaissle integrates his tactical setup at Newcastle, while Iraola looks to maintain the individual momentum of a squad that averaged two goals per game across their final five matches of the previous campaign.

No signal
The model didn’t surface a signal for this match. Browse the data below to form your own view.
Market cross-check

Our model vs the market’s price.

How the public market prices this match, shown next to our model. For context only — it never changes a signal.

Our engine
What our AI model sees
Season averages
Newcastle1.3
1.7Liverpool
Season average total: 3.00 goals
The market
Public / market price
1X2 probabilities
0%
50%
50%
Newcastle winDrawLiverpool win
Market call
Double chance : Draw or Liverpool
Elo rating & xG

Strength rating and xG.

Elo is overall team strength. xG is the goals an average team would score from the same chances.

Overall strength (Club Elo)

One strength number built from every result a team has had. Higher means stronger.

Newcastle
1838
Liverpool
1911

Liverpool are the stronger side — 73 rating points clear of Newcastle.

Goals vs xG

xG = goals an average team would score from the same chances. Scoring well above xG means clinical finishing (or a hot streak).

NewcastleNewcastle
Goals scored
1.60
Expected (xG)
1.36
Scoring in line with their xG
Per game · last 10 matches
LiverpoolLiverpool
Goals scored
1.60
Expected (xG)
1.59
Scoring in line with their xG
Per game · last 10 matches
The scoring picture

Goals scored and conceded.

Per-game averages this season. Use the buttons to split the goals by venue.

Goals per game

Both teams across every game this season.

NewcastleNewcastleLiverpoolLiverpool
1.80Goals scored / game1.40
1.80Goals conceded / game0.80
How reliable, all season

Whole season, home and away combined — Newcastle 5 games, Liverpool 5 games.

NewcastleNewcastleLiverpoolLiverpool
20%Games with a clean sheet60%
0%Games they failed to score20%
Head-to-head

Past meetings.

Newcastle
2–2
Liverpool
Liverpool
4–1
Newcastle
Newcastle
2–3
Liverpool
Liverpool
1–2
Newcastle
Liverpool
2–0
Newcastle
Form check

Their recent form.

Newcastle
Newcastle
Mixed bag at home
Last 5
2W · 2D · 1L
NewcastlevHull City
2–1
W
LeedsvNewcastle
4–1
L
NewcastlevBournemouth
2–2
D
TottenhamvNewcastle
0–2
W
NewcastlevLiverpool
2–2
D
Liverpool
Liverpool
Liverpool — recent form not recorded.
Last 5

No recent matches recorded.

League standings

Where they sit in the table.

Premier League (England) standings · both teams highlighted in context.

#
Team
P
W
D
L
GD
Pts
1
Manchester CityManchester City
5
5
0
0
+8
15
2
ArsenalArsenal
5
4
0
1
+4
12
3
BrightonBrighton
5
3
1
1
+11
10
4
BrentfordBrentford
5
2
3
0
+6
9
5
LeedsLeeds
5
2
3
0
+4
9
6
LiverpoolLiverpool
5
2
3
0
+3
9
7
EvertonEverton
5
2
3
0
+3
9
8
Hull CityHull City
5
2
2
1
+2
8
9
NewcastleNewcastle
5
2
2
1
+0
8
10
ChelseaChelsea
5
2
1
2
-2
7
11
IpswichIpswich
5
2
0
3
-4
6
12
Manchester UnitedManchester United
5
1
2
2
+0
5
13
Nottingham ForestNottingham Forest
5
1
2
2
-1
5
14
SunderlandSunderland
5
1
1
3
-4
4
15
Crystal PalaceCrystal Palace
5
1
1
3
-5
4
16
Aston VillaAston Villa
5
1
1
3
-5
4
17
BournemouthBournemouth
5
0
3
2
-2
3
18
CoventryCoventry
5
1
0
4
-9
3
19
FulhamFulham
5
0
2
3
-3
2
20
TottenhamTottenham
5
0
2
3
-6
2