Winlytics.AI
Full time
Ligue 1 (France)
·
Nice
Nice
14th · 5 pts
vs
Lorient
Lorient
12th · 5 pts·DLWDL
The story

Lorient eye historic double as Nice seek home revival

Nice look to defend an unbeaten home record against Lorient while the visitors aim to cement their surprise hold on a European qualification spot.

Match news & current form

Nice enter this fixture sitting 9th in the table with 34 games remaining. After a mixed pre-season and early campaign that included a 2-0 loss to Juventus and a heavy 3-0 win over Marseille, Les Aiglons are desperate to end a five-match winless run at the Allianz Riviera. Managerial pressure is mounting as the side looks to close the gap on the European places.

Lorient are the early-season surprise package, currently 5th and occupying a continental qualification place. Les Merlus have secured five wins in their last six matches, including a 2-0 victory over Angers last time out. They travel to the south of France with significant momentum, sitting eight points ahead of their hosts.

Head-to-head history

Lorient have the chance to make history this weekend; having won the reverse fixture 3-1 in November, they could secure their first-ever league double over Nice. However, the Allianz Riviera has historically been a fortress in this fixture, with Nice unbeaten in their last seven home league games against the Brittany club.

Hot stats & streaks
  • Lorient have won 5 of their last 6 matches heading into this fixture.
  • Nice are currently winless in their last five domestic matches at the Allianz Riviera.
  • Nice have not lost a home league game to Lorient since April 2024.
  • Lorient's next victory will equal their entire win total from the 2023-24 Ligue 1 campaign.
Key players & missing men

Lorient will be without Isaak Toure, who is the only confirmed absentee. There are late fitness tests pending for Abdoulaye Faye, Bandiougou Fadiga, and Trevan Sanusi. Nice have several unnamed injury concerns but will rely on a squad that recently kept clean sheets against Hull City and Cagliari to stabilize their home form.

No signal
The model didn’t surface a signal for this match. Browse the data below to form your own view.
Market cross-check

Our model vs the market’s price.

How the public market prices this match, shown next to our model. For context only — it never changes a signal.

Our engine
What our AI model sees
Season averages
Nice0.6
0.6Lorient
Season average total: 1.17 goals
The market
Public / market price
1X2 probabilities
45%
45%
10%
Nice winDrawLorient win
Market call
Double chance : Nice or Draw
Elo rating & xG

Strength rating and xG.

Elo is overall team strength. xG is the goals an average team would score from the same chances.

Overall strength (Club Elo)

One strength number built from every result a team has had. Higher means stronger.

Nice
1582
Lorient
1639

Lorient are the stronger side — 57 rating points clear of Nice.

Goals vs xG

xG = goals an average team would score from the same chances. Scoring well above xG means clinical finishing (or a hot streak).

NiceNice
Goals scored
0.60
Expected (xG)
1.17
Wasteful — scoring below their xG
Per game · last 10 matches
LorientLorient
Goals scored
1.50
Expected (xG)
1.40
Scoring in line with their xG
Per game · last 10 matches
The scoring picture

Goals scored and conceded.

Per-game averages this season. Use the buttons to split the goals by venue.

Goals per game

Both teams across every game this season.

NiceNiceLorientLorient
0.25Goals scored / game1.00
1.25Goals conceded / game1.20
How reliable, all season

Whole season, home and away combined — Nice 4 games, Lorient 5 games.

NiceNiceLorientLorient
25%Games with a clean sheet40%
75%Games they failed to score20%
Head-to-head

Past meetings.

Nice
0–0
Lorient
Lorient
0–0
Nice
Nice
3–3
Lorient
Lorient
3–1
Nice
Nice
3–0
Lorient
Form check

Their recent form.

Nice
Nice
Nice — recent form not recorded.
Last 5

No recent matches recorded.

Lorient
Lorient
Inconsistent on the road
Last 5
1W · 2D · 2L
Le MansvLorient
2–1
L
LorientvToulouse
2–2
D
LensvLorient
0–1
W
LorientvEstac Troyes
1–2
L
NicevLorient
0–0
D
League standings

Where they sit in the table.

Ligue 1 (France) standings · both teams highlighted in context.

#
Team
P
W
D
L
GD
Pts
1
MonacoMonaco
5
4
1
0
+5
13
2
LyonLyon
5
3
2
0
+8
11
3
Paris FCParis FC
5
3
2
0
+5
11
4
LilleLille
5
3
1
1
+4
10
5
RennesRennes
5
3
1
1
-1
10
6
Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain
5
2
2
1
+1
8
7
AngersAngers
5
2
1
2
+1
7
8
StrasbourgStrasbourg
5
2
1
2
+0
7
9
Le MansLe Mans
5
1
3
1
+0
6
10
AuxerreAuxerre
5
2
0
3
-5
6
11
Stade Brestois 29Stade Brestois 29
5
1
2
2
-1
5
12
LorientLorient
5
1
2
2
-1
5
13
ToulouseToulouse
5
1
2
2
-2
5
14
NiceNice
5
1
2
2
-3
5
15
LensLens
5
1
1
3
+0
4
16
Estac TroyesEstac Troyes
5
1
1
3
-7
4
17
MarseilleMarseille
5
1
0
4
-1
3
18
Le HavreLe Havre
5
0
2
3
-3
2