Winlytics.AI
Full time
Canadian Premier League (Canada)
·
Pacific FC
Pacific FC
8th · 14 pts·DLDWL
vs
—
Inter Toronto
Inter Toronto
7th · 27 pts·WLDLW
The story

Relegation battle looms as Tridents and Nine Stripes collide

A high-stakes basement battle sees Pacific FC fighting for survival in their final game of the season while York United look to secure their safety with a game to spare.

Match news & current form

Pacific FC enter this fixture in a critical position, sitting 8th on 3 points and currently inside the relegation zone. With 0 games left to save themselves after this encounter, the Tridents are in a 'must-win' scenario. Their momentum is at rock bottom following five consecutive defeats, most recently a narrow 1-2 loss at home to Supra du Quebec.

York United occupy 7th place with 13 points, also within the relegation zone but holding a game in hand over their hosts. Their recent form has been equally concerning, suffering heavy defeats including a 0-5 thrashing by Cavalry FC and a 1-3 loss to Forge. However, their 5-0 Canadian Championship victory over FC Laval earlier in the campaign serves as a reminder of their scoring potential when the attack clicks.

Head-to-head history

This fixture has historically been a tight affair, with Pacific holding 9 wins to York's 8 across 24 meetings. The two sides have a significant recent history in knockout football, having met in consecutive CPL playoff openers in 2023 and 2024. York United claimed the most recent bragging rights with a 2-0 victory in October 2024.

Hot stats & streaks
  • The opening goal is statistically decisive in this matchup; in 22 previous postseason meetings involving these clubs, the team scoring first has lost only once.
  • Pacific FC are looking for their first league win since the opening week of the 2025 campaign.
  • York United have struggled for defensive stability, conceding four or more goals in three of their last five matches.
  • Pacific FC have struggled for results outside of British Columbia this year, making home advantage at Starlight Stadium vital for their survival hopes.
Key players & missing men

Pacific will look to the creative influence of Bustos and the finishing of Díaz to ignite an attack that has been restricted to single goals in four of their last five matches. York United’s threat likely comes through Brian Wright and Mo Babouli, though the team has struggled for consistency, scoring just once in a three-game league run mid-season. Both squads report no fresh injury concerns or suspensions for this clash.

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Our model prices every market we cover on Pacific FC vs Inter Toronto and ranks them by the edge against the bookmakers’ price. Subscribers see the full board.

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Market cross-check

Our model vs the market’s price.

How the public market prices this match, shown next to our model. For context only — it never changes a signal.

Our engine
What our AI model sees
Season averages
Pacific FC1.7
–
1.4Inter Toronto
Season average total: 3.08 goals
The market
Public / market price
1X2 probabilities
10%
45%
45%
Pacific FC winDrawInter Toronto win
Market call
Double chance : Draw or York United
The scoring picture

Goals scored and conceded.

Per-game averages this season. Use the buttons to split the goals by venue.

Goals per game

Both teams across every game this season.

Pacific FCPacific FCInter TorontoInter Toronto
1.25Goals scored / game1.63
2.17Goals conceded / game2.25
How reliable, all season

Whole season, home and away combined — Pacific FC 24 games, Inter Toronto 24 games.

Pacific FCPacific FCInter TorontoInter Toronto
4%Games with a clean sheet8%
29%Games they failed to score8%
Head-to-head

Past meetings.

Inter Toronto
3–4
Pacific FC
Inter Toronto
3–3
Pacific FC
Pacific FC
1–1
Inter Toronto
Pacific FC
0–1
Inter Toronto
Inter Toronto
2–2
Pacific FC
Form check

Their recent form.

Pacific FC
Pacific FC
Mixed bag at home
Last 5
1W · 2D · 2L
Supra du QuebecvPacific FC
5–0
L
Inter TorontovPacific FC
3–4
W
Pacific FCvVancouver FC
1–1
D
Pacific FCvCavalry FC
0–1
L
Inter TorontovPacific FC
3–3
D
Inter Toronto
Inter Toronto
Inconsistent on the road
Last 5
2W · 1D · 2L
Inter TorontovCavalry FC
3–1
W
Inter TorontovPacific FC
3–4
L
Vancouver FCvInter Toronto
3–3
D
HFX Wanderers FCvInter Toronto
4–1
L
Inter TorontovVancouver FC
3–1
W
League standings

Where they sit in the table.

Canadian Premier League (Canada) standings · both teams highlighted in context.

#
Team
P
W
D
L
GD
Pts
1
Cavalry FCCavalry FC
25
16
5
4
+32
53
2
ForgeForge
24
14
6
4
+18
48
3
Atlético OttawaAtlético Ottawa
25
12
4
9
-3
40
4
Vancouver FCVancouver FC
25
9
6
10
+2
33
5
Supra du QuebecSupra du Quebec
24
8
4
12
-8
28
6
HFX Wanderers FCHFX Wanderers FC
25
7
6
12
-4
27
7
Inter TorontoInter Toronto
24
6
9
9
-15
27
8
Pacific FCPacific FC
24
2
8
14
-22
14