Winlytics.AI
Full time
Serie B (Italy)
·
Palermo
Palermo
1st · 13 pts·WWWDW
vs
—
Sampdoria
Sampdoria
17th · 4 pts·DLLLW
The story

Palermo eye perfect start as Sampdoria struggle for survival

Fifth-placed Palermo look to maintain their 100% record while 17th-placed Sampdoria fight to secure their first victory of the campaign and move away from the drop zone.

Match news & current form

Palermo have enjoyed a scintillating start under Filippo Inzaghi, winning both of their opening Serie B fixtures against Arezzo and Juve Stabia. Currently sitting fifth with 6 points, the Sicilians have set ambitious targets for promotion after last season's play-off heartbreak and have won five of their last six matches across all competitions.

Sampdoria's start under Bernardo Corradi has been far more precarious. Following a draw with Cesena and a 1-2 home defeat to Juve Stabia, they sit 17th with just one point. With only 36 points left to play for in the early season stakes, the Genoese side is already feeling the pressure of a survival scrap, sitting just one point above the relegation places.

Head-to-head history

The Stadio Renzo Barbera has been a fortress for Palermo in this fixture; they are undefeated in their last 11 home matches against Sampdoria across all competitions. Historical trends also suggest tight affairs in Sicily, with seven of the last eight meetings at this venue producing fewer than three goals.

Hot stats & streaks
  • Palermo have won all four of their official matches this season across the Coppa Italia and Serie B.
  • Dennis Johnsen has been the creative engine for the hosts, tallying three goals and three assists in his last five appearances.
  • Sampdoria have managed just one win from their last five matches, losing three in that period.
  • The home side has significantly outproduced the visitors in front of goal recently, leading the shot volume 69 to 44 over their last five games.
Key players & missing men

Dennis Johnsen is the man in form for Palermo, while Liam Henderson remains the primary threat for the visitors, having generated the most shots of any Sampdoria player recently. However, Bernardo Corradi’s squad is stretched by a mounting injury list that includes key figures Fabio Depaoli and Salvatore Esposito, further complicating their search for a first win.

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Our model prices every market we cover on Palermo vs Sampdoria and ranks them by the edge against the bookmakers’ price. Subscribers see the full board.

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Market cross-check

Our model vs the market’s price.

How the public market prices this match, shown next to our model. For context only — it never changes a signal.

Our engine
What our AI model sees
Season averages
Palermo2.0
–
0.7Sampdoria
Season average total: 2.67 goals
The market
Public / market price
1X2 probabilities
50%
50%
0%
Palermo winDrawSampdoria win
Market call
Double chance : Palermo or Draw
Elo rating & xG

Strength rating and xG.

Elo is overall team strength. xG is the goals an average team would score from the same chances.

Overall strength (Club Elo)

One strength number built from every result a team has had. Higher means stronger.

Palermo
1514
Sampdoria
1391

Palermo are the stronger side — 123 rating points clear of Sampdoria.

The scoring picture

Goals scored and conceded.

Per-game averages this season. Use the buttons to split the goals by venue.

Goals per game

Both teams across every game this season.

PalermoPalermoSampdoriaSampdoria
2.00Goals scored / game1.00
1.00Goals conceded / game1.80
How reliable, all season

Whole season, home and away combined — Palermo 5 games, Sampdoria 5 games.

PalermoPalermoSampdoriaSampdoria
20%Games with a clean sheet0%
0%Games they failed to score20%
Head-to-head

Past meetings.

Palermo
3–1
Sampdoria
Sampdoria
3–3
Palermo
Palermo
1–0
Sampdoria
Sampdoria
1–1
Palermo
Palermo
1–1
Sampdoria
Form check

Their recent form.

Palermo
Palermo
On a strong winning run
Last 5
4W · 1D · 0L
PalermovPadova
2–1
W
AvellinovPalermo
1–1
D
PalermovSampdoria
3–1
W
ArezzovPalermo
2–3
W
PalermovJuve Stabia
1–0
W
Sampdoria
Sampdoria
Struggling for results
Last 5
1W · 1D · 3L
SampdoriavCatanzaro
2–1
W
MantovavSampdoria
2–0
L
PalermovSampdoria
3–1
L
SampdoriavJuve Stabia
1–2
L
CesenavSampdoria
1–1
D
League standings

Where they sit in the table.

Serie B (Italy) standings · both teams highlighted in context.

#
Team
P
W
D
L
GD
Pts
1
PalermoPalermo
5
4
1
0
+5
13
2
SudtirolSudtirol
5
3
2
0
+6
11
3
MantovaMantova
5
3
2
0
+5
11
4
ModenaModena
5
3
1
1
+4
10
5
AscoliAscoli
5
3
1
1
+3
10
6
PadovaPadova
5
2
1
2
-1
7
7
BeneventoBenevento
5
2
1
2
+1
7
8
Hellas VeronaHellas Verona
5
2
1
2
+3
7
9
AvellinoAvellino
5
2
1
2
+1
7
10
CesenaCesena
5
1
4
0
+1
7
11
PisaPisa
5
2
1
2
+0
7
12
ArezzoArezzo
5
2
0
3
-7
6
13
EmpoliEmpoli
5
2
0
3
-2
6
14
Virtus EntellaVirtus Entella
5
1
2
2
+1
5
15
CremoneseCremonese
5
1
2
2
-2
5
16
Vicenza VirtusVicenza Virtus
5
1
2
2
-3
5
17
SampdoriaSampdoria
5
1
1
3
-4
4
18
Juve StabiaJuve Stabia
5
1
2
2
-3
3
19
CatanzaroCatanzaro
5
1
0
4
-4
3
20
CarrareseCarrarese
5
0
1
4
-4
1