Winlytics.AI
Full time
La Liga (Spain)
·
Rayo Vallecano
Rayo Vallecano
12th · 12 pts·WDDLW
vs
—
Racing Santander
Racing Santander
16th · 11 pts·LDLWL
The story

Rayo seek first win as Racing eye European spots

Rayo Vallecano fight to escape the relegation zone while Racing Santander look to bridge the two-point gap to the European places.

Match news & current form

Rayo Vallecano enter Matchday 4 sitting 18th in the table with just one point from their opening three fixtures. New head coach Benat San Jose, who replaced Inigo Perez this summer, is still searching for his first La Liga victory following a heavy 5-2 defeat away to Barcelona last week. Despite the rocky start, the side has 35 games remaining to secure their top-flight status.

Racing Santander arrive in 10th place with four points, coming off a morale-boosting 3-2 victory over Elche. Manager Jose Alberto Lopez has overseen a mixed start consisting of one win, one draw, and one loss, leaving his side just two points adrift of the European qualification spots.

Head-to-head history

Rayo Vallecano have historically dominated this fixture, winning 67% of their last six meetings with Racing Santander. The most recent encounter between the two clubs saw Rayo emerge as 2-1 victors, and both managers hold identical records against their opposing clubs with one win, one draw, and one loss each from three previous meetings.

Hot stats & streaks
  • Rayo Vallecano have scored at least once in each of their last 13 home matches in La Liga.
  • The last three meetings between these two sides at the Estadio de Vallecas have all produced over 2.5 goals.
  • Racing Santander have displayed an aggressive physical style recently, averaging over eight free kicks won per match across their last five outings.
  • Rayo Vallecano are looking to avoid going four games without a win for the first time since the start of the 2026-27 campaign.
Key players & missing men

Rayo Vallecano are facing a significant selection headache with A. Batalla, Luiz Felipe, I. Palazon, J. Vertrouwd, and M. Kumbulla all listed as absent. Racing Santander travel with a lighter injury list, though they will be without I. Luque and A. Martin. Keep an eye on Sergio Canales and Iñigo Vicente, who remain the creative hubs for the visitors.

Subscribers only

Our signal for this match is locked.

We have published a signal on Rayo Vallecano vs Racing Santander — the market, the selection, the price we need and the model’s confidence. Every signal is graded in public, win or lose.

Subscribers only

Every market on this match, priced and ranked.

Our model prices every market we cover on Rayo Vallecano vs Racing Santander and ranks them by the edge against the bookmakers’ price. Subscribers see the full board.

Unlock every market
Market cross-check

Our model vs the market’s price.

How the public market prices this match, shown next to our model. For context only — it never changes a signal.

Our engine
What our AI model sees
Season averages
Rayo Vallecano2.7
–
1.1Racing Santander
Season average total: 3.80 goals
The market
Public / market price
1X2 probabilities
45%
45%
10%
Rayo Vallecano winDrawRacing Santander win
Market call
Double chance : Rayo Vallecano or Draw
Elo rating & xG

Strength rating and xG.

Elo is overall team strength. xG is the goals an average team would score from the same chances.

Overall strength (Club Elo)

One strength number built from every result a team has had. Higher means stronger.

Rayo Vallecano
1707
Racing Santander
1582

Rayo Vallecano are the stronger side — 125 rating points clear of Racing Santander.

Goals vs xG

xG = goals an average team would score from the same chances. Scoring well above xG means clinical finishing (or a hot streak).

Rayo VallecanoRayo Vallecano
Goals scored
1.50
Expected (xG)
1.40
Scoring in line with their xG
Per game · last 10 matches
Racing SantanderRacing Santander
Goals scored
1.50
Expected (xG)
1.43
Scoring in line with their xG
Per game · last 10 matches
The scoring picture

Goals scored and conceded.

Per-game averages this season. Use the buttons to split the goals by venue.

Goals per game

Both teams across every game this season.

Rayo VallecanoRayo VallecanoRacing SantanderRacing Santander
1.50Goals scored / game1.36
2.00Goals conceded / game2.64
How reliable, all season

Whole season, home and away combined — Rayo Vallecano 10 games, Racing Santander 11 games.

Rayo VallecanoRayo VallecanoRacing SantanderRacing Santander
10%Games with a clean sheet0%
10%Games they failed to score36%
Head-to-head

Past meetings.

Rayo Vallecano
3–2
Racing Santander
Racing Santander
1–2
Rayo Vallecano
Rayo Vallecano
2–0
Racing Santander
Rayo Vallecano
4–2
Racing Santander
Racing Santander
1–1
Rayo Vallecano
Form check

Their recent form.

Rayo Vallecano
Rayo Vallecano
Mixed bag at home
Last 5
2W · 2D · 1L
Rayo VallecanovCelta Vigo
3–0
W
Rayo VallecanovElche
0–3
L
GetafevRayo Vallecano
1–1
D
OsasunavRayo Vallecano
1–1
D
Rayo VallecanovEspanyol
2–1
W
Racing Santander
Racing Santander
Struggling for results
Last 5
1W · 1D · 3L
Racing SantandervReal Madrid
0–3
L
Racing SantandervEspanyol
2–1
W
OsasunavRacing Santander
2–0
L
Racing SantandervValencia
2–2
D
Celta VigovRacing Santander
5–0
L
League standings

Where they sit in the table.

La Liga (Spain) standings · both teams highlighted in context.

#
Team
P
W
D
L
GD
Pts
1
BarcelonaBarcelona
11
10
0
1
+34
30
2
Atletico MadridAtletico Madrid
11
9
1
1
+14
28
3
Real MadridReal Madrid
11
9
0
2
+18
27
4
Real BetisReal Betis
11
7
2
2
+3
23
5
Real SociedadReal Sociedad
11
6
1
4
+0
19
6
SevillaSevilla
11
5
2
4
-2
17
7
Athletic ClubAthletic Club
10
4
3
3
+4
15
8
Deportivo La CorunaDeportivo La Coruna
11
3
5
3
+1
14
9
VillarrealVillarreal
11
3
3
5
+0
12
10
Celta VigoCelta Vigo
11
2
6
3
+0
12
11
AlavesAlaves
11
3
3
5
-2
12
12
Rayo VallecanoRayo Vallecano
10
3
3
4
-5
12
13
GetafeGetafe
11
3
3
5
-8
12
14
EspanyolEspanyol
11
3
2
6
-1
11
15
OsasunaOsasuna
11
3
2
6
-11
11
16
Racing SantanderRacing Santander
11
3
2
6
-14
11
17
ElcheElche
11
2
4
5
-4
10
18
LevanteLevante
11
2
4
5
-5
10
19
ValenciaValencia
11
2
3
6
-9
9
20
MalagaMalaga
11
0
5
6
-13
5