Winlytics.AI
Full time
Ligue 1 (France)
·
Rennes
Rennes
5th · 10 pts·DWWWL
vs
Marseille
Marseille
17th · 3 pts·WLLLL
The story

Unbeaten Rennes look to extend streak against Marseille

Rennes aim to solidify their place in the Europa League positions against a Marseille side desperate to halt a two-game losing slide.

Match news & current form

Rennes sit fifth in the early Ligue 1 standings with seven points, currently holding a place in the Europa League positions. Franck Haise’s side are one of only five teams yet to suffer defeat this season, coming into this fixture following a 2-1 away win at Angers. Having secured seven points from a possible nine, they sit just one point clear of the cut with 31 games remaining.

Marseille occupy 10th place and are looking to find their feet after a mixed start. Despite an opening 4-0 win over Strasbourg, Bruno Génésio's team have since suffered back-to-back defeats against Monaco and Paris FC. They currently sit three points and four places off the continental qualification places, needing a result to prevent falling further behind the early pace-setters.

Head-to-head history

Marseille have had the upper hand in the most recent encounters, winning the last two meetings including a 3-1 victory in May 2026. However, Roazhon Park has been a difficult venue for the visitors; Rennes have claimed victory in three of their previous four home matches against Marseille, including a 1-0 win in August 2025.

Hot stats & streaks
  • Rennes have not lost a home league match since March 2026.
  • Estéban Lepaul has scored in all three of Rennes' Ligue 1 games so far this season.
  • Marseille are on a run of two consecutive defeats, conceding five goals in that span.
  • Rennes' tally of seven goals is the second-highest in the division after three matches.
  • Franck Haise holds a slight historical edge over Marseille, with six wins from 12 career meetings.
Key players & missing men

Rennes striker Estéban Lepaul is the man in form with three goals in three games, while goalkeeper Brice Samba returned to the XI last week following a muscle injury. The hosts remain without Djaoui Cisse, Arnaud Nordin, and Gabriel Oliveira. Marseille rely heavily on Amine Gouiri, who has four goals already this term, but their midfield is depleted by the absences of Geoffrey Kondogbia, Tochukwu Nnadi, and A. Koum Mbondo.

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Market cross-check

Our model vs the market’s price.

How the public market prices this match, shown next to our model. For context only — it never changes a signal.

Our engine
What our AI model sees
Season averages
Rennes1.8
0.7Marseille
Season average total: 2.42 goals
The market
Public / market price
1X2 probabilities
35%
35%
30%
Rennes winDrawMarseille win
Market call
Double chance : Rennes or Draw
Elo rating & xG

Strength rating and xG.

Elo is overall team strength. xG is the goals an average team would score from the same chances.

Overall strength (Club Elo)

One strength number built from every result a team has had. Higher means stronger.

Rennes
1716
Marseille
1717

Evenly matched on rating.

Goals vs xG

xG = goals an average team would score from the same chances. Scoring well above xG means clinical finishing (or a hot streak).

RennesRennes
Goals scored
1.60
Expected (xG)
2.00
Wasteful — scoring below their xG
Per game · last 10 matches
MarseilleMarseille
Goals scored
1.20
Expected (xG)
1.99
Wasteful — scoring below their xG
Per game · last 10 matches
The scoring picture

Goals scored and conceded.

Per-game averages this season. Use the buttons to split the goals by venue.

Goals per game

Both teams across every game this season.

RennesRennesMarseilleMarseille
1.60Goals scored / game1.40
1.80Goals conceded / game1.60
How reliable, all season

Whole season, home and away combined — Rennes 5 games, Marseille 5 games.

RennesRennesMarseilleMarseille
20%Games with a clean sheet20%
20%Games they failed to score40%
Head-to-head

Past meetings.

Rennes
1–0
Marseille
Marseille
3–1
Rennes
Marseille
3–0
Rennes
Rennes
1–0
Marseille
Marseille
4–2
Rennes
Form check

Their recent form.

Rennes
Rennes
Winning more than not lately
Last 5
3W · 1D · 1L
LyonvRennes
4–0
L
RennesvMarseille
1–0
W
AngersvRennes
1–2
W
RennesvLe Mans
3–2
W
RennesvParis Saint Germain
2–2
D
Marseille
Marseille
Losing form badly
Last 5
1W · 0D · 4L
MarseillevParis Saint Germain
1–2
L
RennesvMarseille
1–0
L
MarseillevParis FC
2–3
L
MonacovMarseille
2–0
L
MarseillevStrasbourg
4–0
W
League standings

Where they sit in the table.

Ligue 1 (France) standings · both teams highlighted in context.

#
Team
P
W
D
L
GD
Pts
1
MonacoMonaco
5
4
1
0
+5
13
2
LyonLyon
5
3
2
0
+8
11
3
Paris FCParis FC
5
3
2
0
+5
11
4
LilleLille
5
3
1
1
+4
10
5
RennesRennes
5
3
1
1
-1
10
6
Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain
5
2
2
1
+1
8
7
AngersAngers
5
2
1
2
+1
7
8
StrasbourgStrasbourg
5
2
1
2
+0
7
9
Le MansLe Mans
5
1
3
1
+0
6
10
AuxerreAuxerre
5
2
0
3
-5
6
11
Stade Brestois 29Stade Brestois 29
5
1
2
2
-1
5
12
LorientLorient
5
1
2
2
-1
5
13
ToulouseToulouse
5
1
2
2
-2
5
14
NiceNice
5
1
2
2
-3
5
15
LensLens
5
1
1
3
+0
4
16
Estac TroyesEstac Troyes
5
1
1
3
-7
4
17
MarseilleMarseille
5
1
0
4
-1
3
18
Le HavreLe Havre
5
0
2
3
-3
2