Winlytics.AI
Full time
Primeira Liga (Portugal)
·
SC Braga
SC Braga
8th · 14 pts·WDLLL
vs
—
Vitória SC
Vitória SC
13th · 9 pts·DLDLW
The story

Braga seek redemption in fierce Minho Derby clash

SC Braga look to climb out of the bottom half while Vitória SC aim to close the gap on the European qualification spots in this high-stakes regional rivalry.

Match news & current form

SC Braga enter this fixture sitting 14th in the table with just one point from their opening match, a -2 draw against Moreirense. Manager Carlos Carvalhal is looking to build momentum and move his side out of the early-season relegation zone, relying on a squad that recently showed clinical finishing in their 2-0 victory over Farense.

Vitória SC occupy 9th place with three points, trailing the European spots by three. While they secured a 1-0 win over Nacional in their last outing, their league form has been patchy with two losses in their last three games, including a narrow defeat to Sporting CP and a home loss to Arouca.

Head-to-head history

The Minho Derby has been closely contested recently; Vitória SC managed a victory at Braga last month, a result that ended a period of dominance for the home side. However, Braga have historically been the more successful side in this fixture, particularly in cup competitions where they have won three titles since 2013.

Hot stats & streaks
  • Vitória SC are winless in four Primeira Liga outings despite their strong start to the season.
  • Braga have reached the final or won the Taca da Liga in five of the last eleven seasons.
  • Vitória SC have maintained a perfect record in cup competitions this season, including two wins in the Conference League.
  • Amine El Ouazzani has become a super-sub threat for Braga, scoring in his last appearance against Farense.
Key players & missing men

Braga remain without German defender Bright Arrey-Mbi, who is sidelined with a muscle injury. In goal, Lukas Hornicek may continue to deputise for regular starter Matheus. For the visitors, Amine El Ouazzani is pushing for a start after his recent goal-scoring exploits, while Vitória SC have no new reported absences but must manage the fatigue of their European campaign.

Subscribers only

Our signal for this match is locked.

We have published a signal on SC Braga vs Vitória SC — the market, the selection, the price we need and the model’s confidence. Every signal is graded in public, win or lose.

Subscribers only

Every market on this match, priced and ranked.

Our model prices every market we cover on SC Braga vs Vitória SC and ranks them by the edge against the bookmakers’ price. Subscribers see the full board.

Unlock every market
Market cross-check

Our model vs the market’s price.

How the public market prices this match, shown next to our model. For context only — it never changes a signal.

Our engine
What our AI model sees
Season averages
SC Braga1.5
–
1.0Vitória SC
Season average total: 2.50 goals
The market
Public / market price
1X2 probabilities
35%
35%
30%
SC Braga winDrawVitória SC win
Market call
Double chance : SC Braga or Draw
Elo rating & xG

Strength rating and xG.

Elo is overall team strength. xG is the goals an average team would score from the same chances.

Overall strength (Club Elo)

One strength number built from every result a team has had. Higher means stronger.

SC Braga
1699
Vitória SC
1516

SC Braga are the stronger side — 183 rating points clear of Vitória SC.

The scoring picture

Goals scored and conceded.

Per-game averages this season. Use the buttons to split the goals by venue.

Goals per game

Both teams across every game this season.

SC BragaSC BragaVitória SCVitória SC
1.00Goals scored / game1.11
1.22Goals conceded / game1.11
How reliable, all season

Whole season, home and away combined — SC Braga 9 games, Vitória SC 9 games.

SC BragaSC BragaVitória SCVitória SC
33%Games with a clean sheet33%
22%Games they failed to score44%
Head-to-head

Past meetings.

SC Braga
1–0
Vitória SC
SC Braga
3–2
Vitória SC
Vitória SC
2–1
SC Braga
Vitória SC
1–1
SC Braga
Vitória SC
0–0
SC Braga
Form check

Their recent form.

SC Braga
SC Braga
Struggling for results
Last 5
1W · 1D · 3L
NacionalvSC Braga
1–0
L
SC BragavGIL Vicente
1–2
L
SC BragavSporting CP
1–3
L
Santa ClaravSC Braga
0–0
D
SC BragavEstoril
1–0
W
Vitória SC
Vitória SC
Inconsistent on the road
Last 5
1W · 2D · 2L
Vitória SCvMaritimo
5–0
W
BenficavVitória SC
2–0
L
Vitória SCvMoreirense
1–1
D
Academico ViseuvVitória SC
2–1
L
Vitória SCvCasa Pia
0–0
D
League standings

Where they sit in the table.

Primeira Liga (Portugal) standings · both teams highlighted in context.

#
Team
P
W
D
L
GD
Pts
1
FC PortoFC Porto
10
10
0
0
+21
30
2
BenficaBenfica
10
8
1
1
+19
25
3
Sporting CPSporting CP
10
6
3
1
+12
21
4
Santa ClaraSanta Clara
10
6
3
1
+9
21
5
AroucaArouca
10
6
2
2
+6
20
6
Academico ViseuAcademico Viseu
10
6
2
2
+3
20
7
GIL VicenteGIL Vicente
10
4
3
3
+1
15
8
SC BragaSC Braga
10
4
2
4
+1
14
9
MoreirenseMoreirense
10
4
2
4
-4
14
10
AlvercaAlverca
10
3
2
5
-1
11
11
FamalicaoFamalicao
10
2
4
4
+0
10
12
EstrelaEstrela
10
2
4
4
-4
10
13
Vitória SCVitória SC
10
2
3
5
+0
9
14
MaritimoMaritimo
10
2
2
6
-12
8
15
NacionalNacional
10
2
1
7
-9
7
16
Rio AveRio Ave
10
2
1
7
-14
7
17
Casa PiaCasa Pia
10
2
1
7
-14
7
18
EstorilEstoril
10
0
2
8
-14
2