Winlytics.AI
Full time
Bundesliga (Germany)
·
SC Freiburg
SC Freiburg
3rd · 10 pts·WWWD
vs
Werder Bremen
Werder Bremen
8th · 7 pts·LWDW
The story

Schuster seeks fifth straight win as Thioune debuts

SC Freiburg look to consolidate their early continental standing against a Werder Bremen side desperate to climb out of the bottom three in Daniel Thioune’s first league game in charge.

Match news & current form

SC Freiburg enter this fixture sitting 6th and holding a continental place. Julian Schuster’s side carries significant momentum into the weekend, having secured three consecutive victories across all competitions, including a recent outing against Motherwell. Schuster boasts a flawless personal record against Bremen, winning all four of his previous managerial encounters with the Hanseatic club.

Werder Bremen currently occupy 14th place and find themselves inside the early relegation zone. However, they arrive buoyed by a 0-3 DFB Pokal victory over LSK Hansa. This match marks a new era for the visitors as Daniel Thioune takes charge for the first time in the Bundesliga, with reports suggesting a tactical shift to a more expansive 4-3-3 formation.

Head-to-head history

Historically, Werder Bremen hold the upper hand with 25 wins to Freiburg's 17 across 52 meetings. However, the tide has turned recently; Freiburg won the most recent encounter 1-0 and have punished Bremen's defensive lapses clinically in their latest transitions.

Hot stats & streaks
  • Julian Schuster has won all four of his career meetings against Werder Bremen.
  • SC Freiburg have found the net in each of their last three competitive matches.
  • Freiburg are currently on a run of three consecutive wins in all competitions.
  • This fixture marks SC Freiburg's 27th season in the top flight compared to Bremen's 62nd.
Key players & missing men

Freiburg face a defensive reshuffle as Philipp Lienhart is a confirmed absentee, while Lukas Kübler remains doubtful. Philipp Treu is expected to be fit despite a minor hamstring issue. For Bremen, Niclas Füllkrug remains the focal point of an attack that looked sharp in the cup, supported by new tactical roles for Justin Njinmah and Samuel Mbangula.

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Our model prices every market we cover on SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen and ranks them by the edge against the bookmakers’ price. Subscribers see the full board.

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Market cross-check

Our model vs the market’s price.

How the public market prices this match, shown next to our model. For context only — it never changes a signal.

Our engine
What our AI model sees
Season averages
SC Freiburg3.5
0.8Werder Bremen
Season average total: 4.25 goals
The market
Public / market price
1X2 probabilities
50%
50%
0%
SC Freiburg winDrawWerder Bremen win
Market call
Double chance : SC Freiburg or Draw
Elo rating & xG

Strength rating and xG.

Elo is overall team strength. xG is the goals an average team would score from the same chances.

Overall strength (Club Elo)

One strength number built from every result a team has had. Higher means stronger.

SC Freiburg
1725
Werder Bremen
1606

SC Freiburg are the stronger side — 119 rating points clear of Werder Bremen.

Goals vs xG

xG = goals an average team would score from the same chances. Scoring well above xG means clinical finishing (or a hot streak).

SC FreiburgSC Freiburg
Goals scored
2.20
Expected (xG)
1.59
Clinical — scoring above their xG
Per game · last 10 matches
Werder BremenWerder Bremen
Goals scored
1.40
Expected (xG)
1.15
Scoring in line with their xG
Per game · last 10 matches
The scoring picture

Goals scored and conceded.

Per-game averages this season. Use the buttons to split the goals by venue.

Goals per game

Both teams across every game this season.

SC FreiburgSC FreiburgWerder BremenWerder Bremen
3.00Goals scored / game2.00
0.75Goals conceded / game2.00
How reliable, all season

Whole season, home and away combined — SC Freiburg 4 games, Werder Bremen 4 games.

SC FreiburgSC FreiburgWerder BremenWerder Bremen
50%Games with a clean sheet0%
0%Games they failed to score0%
Head-to-head

Past meetings.

SC Freiburg
4–1
Werder Bremen
SC Freiburg
1–0
Werder Bremen
Werder Bremen
0–3
SC Freiburg
SC Freiburg
5–0
Werder Bremen
Werder Bremen
0–1
SC Freiburg
Form check

Their recent form.

SC Freiburg
SC Freiburg
Winning more than not lately
Last 5
3W · 1D · 0L
Eintracht FrankfurtvSC Freiburg
2–2
D
SC FreiburgvBorussia Mönchengladbach
5–0
W
SC Paderborn 07vSC Freiburg
0–1
W
SC FreiburgvWerder Bremen
4–1
W
Werder Bremen
Werder Bremen
Inconsistent on the road
Last 5
2W · 1D · 1L
Werder BremenvFC Augsburg
3–2
W
1. FC KölnvWerder Bremen
1–1
D
Werder BremenvRB Leipzig
3–1
W
SC FreiburgvWerder Bremen
4–1
L
League standings

Where they sit in the table.

Bundesliga (Germany) standings · both teams highlighted in context.

#
Team
P
W
D
L
GD
Pts
1
Borussia DortmundBorussia Dortmund
4
4
0
0
+7
12
2
Bayern MünchenBayern München
4
3
1
0
+12
10
3
SC FreiburgSC Freiburg
4
3
1
0
+9
10
4
FC AugsburgFC Augsburg
4
2
1
1
+5
7
5
Bayer LeverkusenBayer Leverkusen
4
2
1
1
+5
7
6
FSV Mainz 05FSV Mainz 05
4
2
1
1
+4
7
7
SV ElversbergSV Elversberg
4
2
1
1
+1
7
8
Werder BremenWerder Bremen
4
2
1
1
+0
7
9
RB LeipzigRB Leipzig
4
2
0
2
+4
6
10
Eintracht FrankfurtEintracht Frankfurt
4
1
2
1
-1
5
11
FC Schalke 04FC Schalke 04
4
1
2
1
-1
5
12
SC Paderborn 07SC Paderborn 07
4
1
1
2
-2
4
13
1. FC Köln1. FC Köln
4
1
1
2
-3
4
14
1899 Hoffenheim1899 Hoffenheim
4
1
0
3
-3
3
15
VfB StuttgartVfB Stuttgart
4
1
0
3
-3
3
16
Hamburger SVHamburger SV
4
1
0
3
-11
3
17
Union BerlinUnion Berlin
4
0
1
3
-13
1
18
Borussia MönchengladbachBorussia Mönchengladbach
4
0
0
4
-10
0