Winlytics.AI
Full time
Bundesliga (Germany)
·
SC Paderborn 07
SC Paderborn 07
14th · 9 pts·WLDWD
vs
—
SC Freiburg
SC Freiburg
3rd · 16 pts·WDWLL
The story

Promoted Paderborn test unbeaten streak against high-flying Freiburg

SC Paderborn host their first Bundesliga home game of the campaign looking to upset a Freiburg side currently sitting second in the table.

Match news & current form

SC Paderborn 07 enter this fixture 11th in the table with 1 point, having secured their top-flight return via a 2-1 aggregate playoff victory over Wolfsburg in May. Ralf Kettemann’s side extended their unbeaten run to nine matches across all competitions following a 0-0 draw away at Mainz last weekend, though they failed to register a single shot on target in that encounter.

SC Freiburg occupy 2nd place and remain firmly in the early title race after a dominant 4-1 opening weekend victory over Werder Bremen. Julian Schuster’s men are seeking to build on last season's European exploits and could make it five wins on the bounce across all competitions with a victory at the Home Deluxe Arena.

Head-to-head history

The historical record is perfectly balanced with five wins apiece across 14 previous meetings. However, Paderborn have historically struggled at home in this fixture, winning only one of their seven encounters against Freiburg at the Home Deluxe Arena.

Hot stats & streaks
  • Paderborn are currently on a nine-match unbeaten streak dating back to May 3.
  • Freiburg are chasing a fifth consecutive victory in all competitions.
  • Paderborn have won two of the four previous meetings specifically held in the Bundesliga.
  • The hosts failed to record a single shot on target in their previous league outing.
Key players & missing men

Freiburg's attacking threat is spearheaded by Igor Matanovic and Jan-Niklas Beste, who helped the side to four goals in their opener. Paderborn will look to Gabriel Vidović and Marvin Pieringer to provide the spark that was missing against Mainz. Both squads report no fresh injury concerns, with Paderborn likely to stick with the defensive unit that secured a clean sheet last weekend.

Subscribers only

Our signal for this match is locked.

We have published a signal on SC Paderborn 07 vs SC Freiburg — the market, the selection, the price we need and the model’s confidence. Every signal is graded in public, win or lose.

Subscribers only

Every market on this match, priced and ranked.

Our model prices every market we cover on SC Paderborn 07 vs SC Freiburg and ranks them by the edge against the bookmakers’ price. Subscribers see the full board.

Unlock every market
Market cross-check

Our model vs the market’s price.

How the public market prices this match, shown next to our model. For context only — it never changes a signal.

Our engine
What our AI model sees
Season averages
SC Paderborn 071.1
–
1.3SC Freiburg
Season average total: 2.38 goals
The market
Public / market price
1X2 probabilities
10%
45%
45%
SC Paderborn 07 winDrawSC Freiburg win
Market call
Winner : SC Freiburg
Elo rating & xG

Strength rating and xG.

Elo is overall team strength. xG is the goals an average team would score from the same chances.

Goals vs xG

xG = goals an average team would score from the same chances. Scoring well above xG means clinical finishing (or a hot streak).

No xG data for SC Paderborn 07
SC FreiburgSC Freiburg
Goals scored
2.40
Expected (xG)
1.70
Clinical — scoring above their xG
Per game · last 10 matches
The scoring picture

Goals scored and conceded.

Per-game averages this season. Use the buttons to split the goals by venue.

Goals per game

Both teams across every game this season.

SC Paderborn 07SC Paderborn 07SC FreiburgSC Freiburg
0.75Goals scored / game2.25
1.13Goals conceded / game1.25
How reliable, all season

Whole season, home and away combined — SC Paderborn 07 8 games, SC Freiburg 8 games.

SC Paderborn 07SC Paderborn 07SC FreiburgSC Freiburg
38%Games with a clean sheet25%
63%Games they failed to score0%
Head-to-head

Past meetings.

SC Paderborn 07
0–1
SC Freiburg
SC Freiburg
1–3
SC Paderborn 07
SC Freiburg
0–2
SC Paderborn 07
SC Paderborn 07
1–3
SC Freiburg
SC Paderborn 07
1–2
SC Freiburg
Form check

Their recent form.

SC Paderborn 07
SC Paderborn 07
Mixed bag at home
Last 5
2W · 2D · 1L
Borussia MönchengladbachvSC Paderborn 07
0–0
D
SC Paderborn 07vHamburger SV
1–0
W
Werder BremenvSC Paderborn 07
2–2
D
SC Paderborn 07vVfB Stuttgart
0–2
L
SC Paderborn 07v1899 Hoffenheim
3–1
W
SC Freiburg
SC Freiburg
Inconsistent on the road
Last 5
2W · 1D · 2L
SC FreiburgvBayern München
1–3
L
Bayer LeverkusenvSC Freiburg
2–1
L
SC FreiburgvFC Schalke 04
2–1
W
Eintracht FrankfurtvSC Freiburg
2–2
D
SC FreiburgvBorussia Mönchengladbach
5–0
W
League standings

Where they sit in the table.

Bundesliga (Germany) standings · both teams highlighted in context.

#
Team
P
W
D
L
GD
Pts
1
Bayern MünchenBayern München
8
5
3
0
+19
18
2
Borussia DortmundBorussia Dortmund
8
5
3
0
+8
18
3
SC FreiburgSC Freiburg
8
5
1
2
+8
16
4
RB LeipzigRB Leipzig
8
5
0
3
+11
15
5
Werder BremenWerder Bremen
8
4
3
1
+3
15
6
Bayer LeverkusenBayer Leverkusen
8
4
1
3
+2
13
7
SV ElversbergSV Elversberg
8
4
1
3
+0
13
8
Eintracht FrankfurtEintracht Frankfurt
8
3
2
3
-5
11
9
FSV Mainz 05FSV Mainz 05
8
3
1
4
+0
10
10
FC AugsburgFC Augsburg
8
2
3
3
+3
9
11
VfB StuttgartVfB Stuttgart
8
3
0
5
-1
9
12
1899 Hoffenheim1899 Hoffenheim
8
3
0
5
-2
9
13
1. FC Köln1. FC Köln
8
2
3
3
-3
9
14
SC Paderborn 07SC Paderborn 07
8
2
3
3
-3
9
15
Hamburger SVHamburger SV
8
3
0
5
-12
9
16
Union BerlinUnion Berlin
8
1
4
3
-12
7
17
FC Schalke 04FC Schalke 04
8
1
3
4
-5
6
18
Borussia MönchengladbachBorussia Mönchengladbach
8
1
1
6
-11
4