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Bundesliga (Germany)
·
SC Paderborn 07
SC Paderborn 07
12th · 4 pts·DLLW
vs
VfL Wolfsburg
VfL Wolfsburg
·DWDLW
The story

Wolfsburg fight for survival in Paderborn playoff decider

A place in the top flight is at stake as SC Paderborn 07 look to capitalise on home advantage against a VfL Wolfsburg side desperate to protect their ever-present Bundesliga status.

Match news & current form

VfL Wolfsburg enter this second leg under immense pressure to avoid a historic first-ever relegation from the Bundesliga. Following a 0-0 draw in the first leg where they dominated possession but failed to find a breakthrough, the Wolves have now won just once in their last five matches. They are looking to repeat their 2016/17 playoff success to maintain their top-tier standing.

SC Paderborn 07, led by 39-year-old Ralf Kettemann in his debut season, will be the happier of the two sides after keeping a clean sheet at the Volkswagen Arena. Having finished third in the 2. Bundesliga to earn this opportunity, they now return to home turf where they must find the clinical edge that was missing in the reverse fixture.

Head-to-head history

Wolfsburg are unbeaten in their five previous competitive meetings with Paderborn, winning three and drawing two. However, Paderborn claimed a 2-1 victory when the sides met in a friendly in September 2025, suggesting the gap between the divisions is narrower than the league standings imply.

Hot stats & streaks
  • Wolfsburg have never lost a relegation playoff match, having won both legs of their only previous appearance in 2016/17.
  • Dženan Pejčinović has been in sharp form for the visitors, scoring in three of his last six matches.
  • Konstantinos Koulierakis has provided a significant threat from set-pieces, scoring two headers in his last three appearances.
  • Wolfsburg captain Maximilian Arnold scored in the last league meeting between these sides, but his absence today leaves a void in the Wolves' midfield.
Key players & missing men

Christian Eriksen is the primary creative outlet for Wolfsburg, having registered nine assists and three goals in his debut season. The visitors are significantly weakened by the absence of captain Maximilian Arnold (groin) and Bence Dardai (ACL). Paderborn must navigate this decider without Jonah Sticker, who is suspended after receiving a red card in the first leg, and the injured Raphael Obermair.

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Our signal for this match is locked.

We have published a signal on SC Paderborn 07 vs VfL Wolfsburg — the market, the selection, the price we need and the model’s confidence. Every signal is graded in public, win or lose.

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Every market on this match, priced and ranked.

Our model prices every market we cover on SC Paderborn 07 vs VfL Wolfsburg and ranks them by the edge against the bookmakers’ price. Subscribers see the full board.

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Market cross-check

Our model vs the market’s price.

How the public market prices this match, shown next to our model. For context only — it never changes a signal.

Our engine
What our AI model sees
The market
Public / market price
1X2 probabilities
0%
50%
50%
SC Paderborn 07 winDrawVfL Wolfsburg win
Market call
Winner : VfL Wolfsburg
Goals forecast
Under 2.5 goals
Elo rating & xG

Strength rating and xG.

Elo is overall team strength. xG is the goals an average team would score from the same chances.

Goals vs xG

xG = goals an average team would score from the same chances. Scoring well above xG means clinical finishing (or a hot streak).

No xG data for SC Paderborn 07
VfL WolfsburgVfL Wolfsburg
Goals scored
1.20
Expected (xG)
1.88
Wasteful — scoring below their xG
Per game · last 10 matches
The scoring picture

Goals scored and conceded.

Per-game averages this season. Use the buttons to split the goals by venue.

Goals per game

Both teams across every game this season.

SC Paderborn 07SC Paderborn 07VfL WolfsburgVfL Wolfsburg
0.75Goals scored / game
1.25Goals conceded / game
How reliable, all season

Whole season, home and away combined — SC Paderborn 07 4 games, VfL Wolfsburg — games.

SC Paderborn 07SC Paderborn 07VfL WolfsburgVfL Wolfsburg
25%Games with a clean sheet
75%Games they failed to score
Head-to-head

Past meetings.

SC Paderborn 07
2–1
VfL Wolfsburg
VfL Wolfsburg
0–0
SC Paderborn 07
VfL Wolfsburg
5–4
SC Paderborn 07
SC Paderborn 07
2–4
VfL Wolfsburg
VfL Wolfsburg
1–1
SC Paderborn 07
Form check

Their recent form.

SC Paderborn 07
SC Paderborn 07
Mixed bag at home
Last 5
1W · 1D · 2L
SC Paderborn 07v1899 Hoffenheim
3–1
W
Borussia DortmundvSC Paderborn 07
3–0
L
SC Paderborn 07vSC Freiburg
0–1
L
FSV Mainz 05vSC Paderborn 07
0–0
D
VfL Wolfsburg
VfL Wolfsburg
Inconsistent on the road
Last 5
2W · 2D · 1L
VfL WolfsburgvSV Darmstadt 98
5–1
W
FC St. PaulivVfL Wolfsburg
1–0
L
VfL WolfsburgvEnergie Cottbus
4–4
D
Karlsruher SCvVfL Wolfsburg
2–5
W
AltglienickevVfL Wolfsburg
3–3
D
League standings

Where they sit in the table.

Bundesliga (Germany) standings · both teams highlighted in context.

#
Team
P
W
D
L
GD
Pts
1
Borussia DortmundBorussia Dortmund
4
4
0
0
+7
12
2
Bayern MünchenBayern München
4
3
1
0
+12
10
3
SC FreiburgSC Freiburg
4
3
1
0
+9
10
4
FC AugsburgFC Augsburg
4
2
1
1
+5
7
5
Bayer LeverkusenBayer Leverkusen
4
2
1
1
+5
7
6
FSV Mainz 05FSV Mainz 05
4
2
1
1
+4
7
7
SV ElversbergSV Elversberg
4
2
1
1
+1
7
8
Werder BremenWerder Bremen
4
2
1
1
+0
7
9
RB LeipzigRB Leipzig
4
2
0
2
+4
6
10
Eintracht FrankfurtEintracht Frankfurt
4
1
2
1
-1
5
11
FC Schalke 04FC Schalke 04
4
1
2
1
-1
5
12
SC Paderborn 07SC Paderborn 07
4
1
1
2
-2
4
13
1. FC Köln1. FC Köln
4
1
1
2
-3
4
14
1899 Hoffenheim1899 Hoffenheim
4
1
0
3
-3
3
15
VfB StuttgartVfB Stuttgart
4
1
0
3
-3
3
16
Hamburger SVHamburger SV
4
1
0
3
-11
3
17
Union BerlinUnion Berlin
4
0
1
3
-13
1
18
Borussia MönchengladbachBorussia Mönchengladbach
4
0
0
4
-10
0