Winlytics.AI
Kicks off in 2d 18h
Ligue 1 (France)
·
Stade Brestois 29
Stade Brestois 29
10th · 12 pts·LWDLW
vs
—
Lyon
Lyon
3rd · 17 pts·WLWLW
The story

Brest host Lyon aiming to extend derby momentum

Tenth-placed Stade Brestois look to build on their derby triumph as they welcome third-placed Lyon to Stade Francis-Le Blé.

Match news & current form

Stade Brestois sit 10th with 12 points after nine matches, keeping steady in mid-table as they seek consistency. They snapped a two-match winless run last time out with a clinical 2-0 away victory against regional rivals Lorient. Manager Julien Lachuer framed this home test against Lyon as a pivotal opportunity to kick on and push into the upper half of the standings.

Lyon have made a strong start to the campaign, sitting third with 17 points from their opening nine fixtures. They secured a 2-0 home victory over Angers in their most recent league outing, bouncing back from a 2-0 defeat away at Paris Saint-Germain. However, having also lost 2-1 at Lens in recent weeks, their form away from home has shown vulnerability.

Head-to-head history

Recent meetings between these two sides have been tightly contested affairs. The last clash at Stade Francis-Le Blé ended in a 0-0 stalemate in November 2025, following a 2-1 victory for Brest on home soil earlier that year. Lyon edged the most recent encounter 2-1 on their own turf in January 2026.

Hot stats & streaks
  • Brest are unbeaten in their last two home league meetings against Lyon (W1, D1).
  • Lyon have lost their last two away league matches, falling 2-1 at Lens and 2-0 at Paris Saint-Germain.
  • Stade Brestois have scored in four of their last five Ligue 1 fixtures, including a five-goal display against Angers.
Key players & missing men

Lucas Tousart drew praise for an impressive performance in central defence during Brest's clean-sheet win over Lorient and is set to play a key role again alongside expected goalkeeper Egil Selvik. Lyon are expected to field Dominik Greif in goal. Neither side has reported fresh injury concerns heading into Sunday's clash.

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Our model prices every market we cover on Stade Brestois 29 vs Lyon and ranks them by the edge against the bookmakers’ price. Subscribers see the full board.

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Market cross-check

Our model vs the market’s price.

How the public market prices this match, shown next to our model. For context only — it never changes a signal.

Our engine
What our AI model sees
Season averages
Stade Brestois 291.5
–
1.1Lyon
Season average total: 2.63 goals
The market
Public / market price
1X2 probabilities
10%
45%
45%
Stade Brestois 29 winDrawLyon win
Market call
Double chance : Draw or Lyon
Elo rating & xG

Strength rating and xG.

Elo is overall team strength. xG is the goals an average team would score from the same chances.

Overall strength (Club Elo)

One strength number built from every result a team has had. Higher means stronger.

Stade Brestois 29
1621
Lyon
1732

Lyon are the stronger side — 111 rating points clear of Stade Brestois 29.

Goals vs xG

xG = goals an average team would score from the same chances. Scoring well above xG means clinical finishing (or a hot streak).

Stade Brestois 29Stade Brestois 29
Goals scored
1.60
Expected (xG)
2.28
Wasteful — scoring below their xG
Per game · last 10 matches
LyonLyon
Goals scored
1.40
Expected (xG)
1.59
Scoring in line with their xG
Per game · last 10 matches
The scoring picture

Goals scored and conceded.

Per-game averages this season. Use the buttons to split the goals by venue.

Goals per game

Both teams across every game this season.

Stade Brestois 29Stade Brestois 29LyonLyon
1.78Goals scored / game1.67
1.33Goals conceded / game0.78
How reliable, all season

Whole season, home and away combined — Stade Brestois 29 9 games, Lyon 9 games.

Stade Brestois 29Stade Brestois 29LyonLyon
11%Games with a clean sheet44%
11%Games they failed to score22%
Head-to-head

Past meetings.

Lyon
2–1
Stade Brestois 29
Stade Brestois 29
0–0
Lyon
Lyon
2–1
Stade Brestois 29
Stade Brestois 29
2–1
Lyon
Lyon
4–3
Stade Brestois 29
Form check

Their recent form.

Stade Brestois 29
Stade Brestois 29
Mixed bag at home
Last 5
2W · 1D · 2L
LorientvStade Brestois 29
0–2
W
Stade Brestois 29vNice
1–2
L
LillevStade Brestois 29
1–1
D
Stade Brestois 29vAngers
5–1
W
AuxerrevStade Brestois 29
2–1
L
Lyon
Lyon
Winning more than not lately
Last 5
3W · 0D · 2L
LyonvAngers
2–0
W
Paris Saint GermainvLyon
2–0
L
LyonvNice
2–1
W
LensvLyon
2–1
L
LyonvRennes
4–0
W
League standings

Where they sit in the table.

Ligue 1 (France) standings · both teams highlighted in context.

#
Team
P
W
D
L
GD
Pts
1
Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain
9
6
2
1
+11
20
2
LilleLille
9
5
3
1
+6
18
3
LyonLyon
9
5
2
2
+8
17
4
Paris FCParis FC
9
5
2
2
+6
17
5
RennesRennes
9
5
1
3
+1
16
6
MarseilleMarseille
9
5
0
4
+7
15
7
MonacoMonaco
9
4
3
2
+2
15
8
NiceNice
9
4
2
3
+1
14
9
LensLens
9
4
1
4
+3
13
10
Stade Brestois 29Stade Brestois 29
9
3
3
3
+4
12
11
LorientLorient
9
3
3
3
-1
12
12
ToulouseToulouse
9
2
4
3
-1
10
13
StrasbourgStrasbourg
9
3
1
5
-2
10
14
AuxerreAuxerre
9
3
1
5
-10
10
15
AngersAngers
9
2
2
5
-8
8
16
Estac TroyesEstac Troyes
9
2
2
5
-9
8
17
Le MansLe Mans
9
1
4
4
-7
7
18
Le HavreLe Havre
9
0
2
7
-11
2