Winlytics.AI
Full time
Bundesliga (Austria)
·
Sturm Graz
Sturm Graz
4th · 11 pts·WDLWL
vs
Lask Linz
Lask Linz
3rd · 16 pts·WWWLD
The story

Sturm Graz host leaders LASK in early season test

LASK Linz travel to Sturm Graz looking to extend their perfect start to the season and solidify their early control of the title race.

Match news & current form

Sturm Graz enter this fixture sitting 4th in the table on 8 points. Fabio Ingolitsch's side is looking to rediscover consistency after a mixed start to the campaign, most recently suffering a 1-3 defeat away to Rapid Vienna. However, they remain a threat at home, having secured a 1-0 win over SCR Altach in their last outing at the Merkur Arena.

LASK Linz arrive as the early pace-setters, sitting top of the table on 15 points with a perfect five-win record. Fresh from being crowned champions the previous season, they have maintained that momentum with a 3-1 victory over Wolfsberger AC last week. They are currently in full control of the title race with 27 games remaining.

Head-to-head history

Recent encounters between these two sides suggest a highly competitive rivalry. The last two meetings in April 2026 both ended in 1-1 draws. While LASK managed a 3-1 away win in late 2025, Sturm Graz also boast a 4-2 victory on home soil from earlier that same year, indicating that home advantage often plays a significant role.

Hot stats & streaks
  • LASK Linz are on a five-match winning streak in the Bundesliga.
  • Sturm Graz have not lost at home to LASK in their last two attempts, both ending in 1-1 draws.
  • LASK have scored three or more goals in four of their last five league matches.
  • Sturm Graz have kept two clean sheets in their last four league fixtures.
Key players & missing men

Sturm Graz are led by manager Fabio Ingolitsch, who took over the role in late 2025. Both squads appear to have a clean bill of health with no absences reported in the structured data, allowing both managers to field their strongest possible lineups for this top-four clash.

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Market cross-check

Our model vs the market’s price.

How the public market prices this match, shown next to our model. For context only — it never changes a signal.

Our engine
What our AI model sees
Season averages
Sturm Graz1.4
1.5Lask Linz
Season average total: 2.88 goals
The market
Public / market price
1X2 probabilities
10%
45%
45%
Sturm Graz winDrawLask Linz win
Market call
Winner : Lask Linz
Elo rating & xG

Strength rating and xG.

Elo is overall team strength. xG is the goals an average team would score from the same chances.

Overall strength (Club Elo)

One strength number built from every result a team has had. Higher means stronger.

Sturm Graz
1472
Lask Linz
1453

Evenly matched on rating.

The scoring picture

Goals scored and conceded.

Per-game averages this season. Use the buttons to split the goals by venue.

Goals per game

Both teams across every game this season.

Sturm GrazSturm GrazLask LinzLask Linz
1.14Goals scored / game2.71
1.29Goals conceded / game1.00
How reliable, all season

Whole season, home and away combined — Sturm Graz 7 games, Lask Linz 7 games.

Sturm GrazSturm GrazLask LinzLask Linz
29%Games with a clean sheet43%
14%Games they failed to score0%
Head-to-head

Past meetings.

Sturm Graz
2–1
Lask Linz
Sturm Graz
1–1
Lask Linz
Lask Linz
1–1
Sturm Graz
Sturm Graz
1–3
Lask Linz
Lask Linz
0–2
Sturm Graz
Form check

Their recent form.

Sturm Graz
Sturm Graz
Mixed bag at home
Last 5
2W · 1D · 2L
Red Bull SalzburgvSturm Graz
3–0
L
Sturm GrazvLask Linz
2–1
W
Rapid ViennavSturm Graz
3–1
L
Sturm GrazvAustria Lustenau
1–1
D
Sturm GrazvSCR Altach
1–0
W
Lask Linz
Lask Linz
Winning more than not lately
Last 5
3W · 1D · 1L
TSV HartbergvLask Linz
3–3
D
Sturm GrazvLask Linz
2–1
L
Wolfsberger ACvLask Linz
1–3
W
Lask LinzvSCR Altach
3–0
W
Lask LinzvRied
4–1
W
League standings

Where they sit in the table.

Bundesliga (Austria) standings · both teams highlighted in context.

#
Team
P
W
D
L
GD
Pts
1
Rapid ViennaRapid Vienna
7
6
0
1
+14
18
2
Red Bull SalzburgRed Bull Salzburg
7
5
2
0
+14
17
3
Lask LinzLask Linz
7
5
1
1
+12
16
4
Sturm GrazSturm Graz
7
3
2
2
-1
11
5
RiedRied
7
2
2
3
-1
8
6
TSV HartbergTSV Hartberg
7
2
2
3
-3
8
7
WSG WattensWSG Wattens
7
2
2
3
-3
8
8
Austria LustenauAustria Lustenau
7
2
2
3
-3
8
9
Grazer AKGrazer AK
7
2
2
3
-10
8
10
Austria ViennaAustria Vienna
7
2
1
4
-6
7
11
Wolfsberger ACWolfsberger AC
7
1
2
4
-6
5
12
SCR AltachSCR Altach
7
1
0
6
-7
3