Winlytics.AI
Kicks off in 2d 17h
Bundesliga (Austria)
·
Sturm Graz
Sturm Graz
4th · 19 pts·LWWDD
vs
—
Red Bull Salzburg
Red Bull Salzburg
2nd · 27 pts·WDWWW
The story

Sturm Graz host second-placed Red Bull Salzburg

Second meets fourth in Graz as Red Bull Salzburg aim to preserve their strong start against an imposing Sturm Graz home record.

Match news & current form

Sturm Graz sit fourth with 19 points after 11 games, having made a solid start to the campaign with 21 matches still to play before the league eventually splits. Fabio Ingolitsch's side drew 1-1 away at Wolfsberger AC last weekend, extending a run that has seen them win two and draw two of their last five outings.

Red Bull Salzburg sit second on 27 points following an impressive opening 11 matches. They enter the clash on a five-match unbeaten run featuring three victories, including recent league wins over LASK Linz (3-1) and SCR Altach (3-0).

Head-to-head history

While Salzburg claimed a 3-0 home victory in their previous meeting in September 2026, trips to Graz have proven far more stubborn. Sturm Graz are unbeaten in their last four home league matches against Red Bull Salzburg (two wins, two draws), their best run against them on home soil since a five-match streak between August 2007 and December 2009. The two league encounters prior to that September clash both ended in 1-1 stalemates.

Hot stats & streaks
  • Sturm Graz manager Fabio Ingolitsch has gone unbeaten in his first 13 home matches in the Austrian Bundesliga.
  • Sturm Graz are undefeated in their last four home league fixtures against Red Bull Salzburg (W2 D2).
  • Red Bull Salzburg have heavily rotated their lineups, making 45 starting eleven changes from game to game this season—the most in the league.
  • Both sides field the youngest average starting lineups in the division: Salzburg at 23 years, 230 days and Sturm at 23 years, 327 days.
Key players & missing men

Neither side has reported any formal player absences heading into Sunday's clash. Rotation remains a notable factor for Salzburg, whose 45 starting lineup changes lead the division, while Sturm's 30 changes represent the joint-second highest total in the league.

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Our model prices every market we cover on Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg and ranks them by the edge against the bookmakers’ price. Subscribers see the full board.

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Market cross-check

Our model vs the market’s price.

How the public market prices this match, shown next to our model. For context only — it never changes a signal.

Our engine
What our AI model sees
Season averages
Sturm Graz1.5
–
1.3Red Bull Salzburg
Season average total: 2.80 goals
The market
Public / market price
1X2 probabilities
10%
45%
45%
Sturm Graz winDrawRed Bull Salzburg win
Market call
Double chance : Draw or Red Bull Salzburg
Elo rating & xG

Strength rating and xG.

Elo is overall team strength. xG is the goals an average team would score from the same chances.

Overall strength (Club Elo)

One strength number built from every result a team has had. Higher means stronger.

Sturm Graz
1472
Red Bull Salzburg
1482

Evenly matched on rating.

The scoring picture

Goals scored and conceded.

Per-game averages this season. Use the buttons to split the goals by venue.

Goals per game

Both teams across every game this season.

Sturm GrazSturm GrazRed Bull SalzburgRed Bull Salzburg
1.73Goals scored / game2.64
1.18Goals conceded / game0.55
How reliable, all season

Whole season, home and away combined — Sturm Graz 11 games, Red Bull Salzburg 11 games.

Sturm GrazSturm GrazRed Bull SalzburgRed Bull Salzburg
27%Games with a clean sheet45%
9%Games they failed to score9%
Head-to-head

Past meetings.

Red Bull Salzburg
3–0
Sturm Graz
Red Bull Salzburg
1–1
Sturm Graz
Sturm Graz
1–1
Red Bull Salzburg
Sturm Graz
1–1
Red Bull Salzburg
Red Bull Salzburg
0–2
Sturm Graz
Form check

Their recent form.

Sturm Graz
Sturm Graz
Mixed bag at home
Last 5
2W · 2D · 1L
Wolfsberger ACvSturm Graz
1–1
D
Sturm GrazvRied
2–2
D
Sturm GrazvGrazer AK
6–1
W
Austria ViennavSturm Graz
0–2
W
Red Bull SalzburgvSturm Graz
3–0
L
Red Bull Salzburg
Red Bull Salzburg
On a strong winning run
Last 5
4W · 1D · 0L
Red Bull SalzburgvAustria Lustenau
5–1
W
Lask LinzvRed Bull Salzburg
1–3
W
Red Bull SalzburgvSCR Altach
3–0
W
Grazer AKvRed Bull Salzburg
0–0
D
Red Bull SalzburgvSturm Graz
3–0
W
League standings

Where they sit in the table.

Bundesliga (Austria) standings · both teams highlighted in context.

#
Team
P
W
D
L
GD
Pts
1
Rapid ViennaRapid Vienna
11
10
0
1
+24
30
2
Red Bull SalzburgRed Bull Salzburg
11
8
3
0
+23
27
3
Lask LinzLask Linz
11
7
1
3
+13
22
4
Sturm GrazSturm Graz
11
5
4
2
+6
19
5
TSV HartbergTSV Hartberg
11
5
2
4
+1
17
6
RiedRied
11
4
4
3
+1
16
7
WSG WattensWSG Wattens
11
3
3
5
-3
12
8
SCR AltachSCR Altach
11
3
1
7
-6
10
9
Grazer AKGrazer AK
11
2
4
5
-19
10
10
Austria LustenauAustria Lustenau
11
2
2
7
-16
8
11
Austria ViennaAustria Vienna
11
2
1
8
-12
7
12
Wolfsberger ACWolfsberger AC
11
1
3
7
-12
6