Winlytics.AI
Kicks off in 2d 20h
Bundesliga (Austria)
·
Sturm Graz
Sturm Graz
4th · 17 pts·LWLWW
vs
—
Ried
Ried
5th · 14 pts·LDWWW
The story

Sturm Graz host Ried with fourth spot at stake

Just three points separate fourth-placed Sturm Graz and fifth-placed Ried as round 10 of the Austrian Bundesliga gets underway.

Match news & current form

Sturm Graz sit fourth with 17 points after nine games, having made a solid start to the campaign. They bounced back from a heavy defeat at Salzburg by securing a 2-0 away win against Austria Vienna in their most recent outing, taking their tally to two wins from their last five league matches.

Ried are right behind in fifth position on 14 points following an encouraging nine-game start of their own. They enter this fixture carrying positive momentum, having claimed back-to-back victories including a 2-1 away triumph over WSG Wattens and a 4-1 home rout of Wolfsberger AC.

Head-to-head history

Sturm Graz hold complete control in recent meetings between these two sides. They have won four on the bounce against Ried, including a 1-0 home victory in February 2026 and consecutive 3-1 away wins in August 2025 and August 2024.

Hot stats & streaks
  • Sturm Graz have won their last four consecutive matches against Ried.
  • Sturm Graz have scored multiple goals in three of their last four meetings with Ried.
  • Ried arrive having won three of their last five Bundesliga fixtures.
Key players & missing men

Philipp Pomer and Stefan Schwab were both on the scoresheet in Ried's recent 2-1 win at WSG Wattens and will look to carry that scoring touch to Graz. Neither side has reported any fresh absences ahead of kickoff.

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Our model prices every market we cover on Sturm Graz vs Ried and ranks them by the edge against the bookmakers’ price. Subscribers see the full board.

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Market cross-check

Our model vs the market’s price.

How the public market prices this match, shown next to our model. For context only — it never changes a signal.

Our engine
What our AI model sees
Season averages
Sturm Graz2.4
–
1.1Ried
Season average total: 3.50 goals
The market
Public / market price
1X2 probabilities
45%
45%
10%
Sturm Graz winDrawRied win
Market call
Double chance : Sturm Graz or Draw
Goals forecast
Over 1.5 goals
Elo rating & xG

Strength rating and xG.

Elo is overall team strength. xG is the goals an average team would score from the same chances.

Overall strength (Club Elo)

One strength number built from every result a team has had. Higher means stronger.

Sturm Graz
1472
Ried
1302

Sturm Graz are the stronger side — 170 rating points clear of Ried.

The scoring picture

Goals scored and conceded.

Per-game averages this season. Use the buttons to split the goals by venue.

Goals per game

Both teams across every game this season.

Sturm GrazSturm GrazRiedRied
1.78Goals scored / game1.78
1.11Goals conceded / game1.67
How reliable, all season

Whole season, home and away combined — Sturm Graz 9 games, Ried 9 games.

Sturm GrazSturm GrazRiedRied
33%Games with a clean sheet11%
11%Games they failed to score0%
Head-to-head

Past meetings.

Sturm Graz
1–0
Ried
Ried
1–3
Sturm Graz
Ried
1–3
Sturm Graz
Sturm Graz
2–1
Ried
Ried
1–1
Sturm Graz
Form check

Their recent form.

Sturm Graz
Sturm Graz
Winning more than not lately
Last 5
3W · 0D · 2L
Sturm GrazvGrazer AK
6–1
W
Austria ViennavSturm Graz
0–2
W
Red Bull SalzburgvSturm Graz
3–0
L
Sturm GrazvLask Linz
2–1
W
Rapid ViennavSturm Graz
3–1
L
Ried
Ried
Winning more than not lately
Last 5
3W · 1D · 1L
RiedvAustria Vienna
3–2
W
WSG WattensvRied
1–2
W
RiedvWolfsberger AC
4–1
W
RiedvRed Bull Salzburg
1–1
D
TSV HartbergvRied
3–2
L
League standings

Where they sit in the table.

Bundesliga (Austria) standings · both teams highlighted in context.

#
Team
P
W
D
L
GD
Pts
1
Rapid ViennaRapid Vienna
9
8
0
1
+18
24
2
Red Bull SalzburgRed Bull Salzburg
9
6
3
0
+17
21
3
Lask LinzLask Linz
9
6
1
2
+14
19
4
Sturm GrazSturm Graz
9
5
2
2
+6
17
5
RiedRied
9
4
2
3
+1
14
6
WSG WattensWSG Wattens
9
3
2
4
-2
11
7
TSV HartbergTSV Hartberg
9
3
2
4
-4
11
8
Grazer AKGrazer AK
9
2
3
4
-15
9
9
Austria LustenauAustria Lustenau
9
2
2
5
-8
8
10
Austria ViennaAustria Vienna
9
2
1
6
-9
7
11
SCR AltachSCR Altach
9
2
0
7
-7
6
12
Wolfsberger ACWolfsberger AC
9
1
2
6
-11
5