Winlytics.AI
Kicks off in 2d 18h
Liga MX (Mexico)
·
Tigres UANL
Tigres UANL
15th · 10 pts·DDDLW
vs
—
Toluca
Toluca
1st · 20 pts·WWWLD
The story

Struggling Tigres host league leaders Toluca in Monterrey

Tigres UANL need points to close the gap on the playoff places as they welcome table-topping Toluca to Monterrey.

Match news & current form

Tigres UANL sit 15th on 10 points, four points and seven places off the playoff places with seven games remaining. Momentum has been slow to build, with just one win in their last five league outings (W1 D3 L1), though they did secure a 1-0 home victory over Puebla in their most recent fixture.

Toluca travel as league leaders with 20 points from 10 games, firmly in control of the title race under manager Antonio Mohamed. However, the visitors arrive after a slight wobble, having drawn 3-3 at Cruz Azul and lost 2-3 at home to Santos Laguna in their previous two matches.

Head-to-head history

Recent meetings between these sides have been tightly contested. The last two encounters ended level, finished 1-1 at Toluca in May 2026 and 0-0 at Tigres in January 2026. Across their last five meetings, both sides have claimed one win apiece alongside three stalemates.

Hot stats & streaks
  • Toluca have won three of their five away games in the competition this season.
  • Toluca have conceded six goals in their last two league matches after a 3-3 draw at Cruz Azul and a 2-3 loss to Santos Laguna.
  • Tigres UANL are unbeaten in their last two home meetings with Toluca (W1 D1).
Key players & missing men

Juan Francisco Brunetta is the focal point for Tigres, having scored four of their 10 league goals alongside four assists this season, with Rodrigo Aguirre also contributing three goals. Toluca rely on Ernesto Vega Rojas (four goals, two assists) and Federico Vinas (four goals). Neither side has reported any fresh absences.

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We have published a signal on Tigres UANL vs Toluca — the market, the selection, the price we need and the model’s confidence. Every signal is graded in public, win or lose.

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Every market on this match, priced and ranked.

Our model prices every market we cover on Tigres UANL vs Toluca and ranks them by the edge against the bookmakers’ price. Subscribers see the full board.

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Market cross-check

Our model vs the market’s price.

How the public market prices this match, shown next to our model. For context only — it never changes a signal.

Our engine
What our AI model sees
Season averages
Tigres UANL1.1
–
1.2Toluca
Season average total: 2.33 goals
The market
Public / market price
1X2 probabilities
10%
45%
45%
Tigres UANL winDrawToluca win
Market call
Double chance : Draw or Toluca
The scoring picture

Goals scored and conceded.

Per-game averages this season. Use the buttons to split the goals by venue.

Goals per game

Both teams across every game this season.

Tigres UANLTigres UANLTolucaToluca
1.00Goals scored / game2.30
1.30Goals conceded / game1.20
How reliable, all season

Whole season, home and away combined — Tigres UANL 10 games, Toluca 10 games.

Tigres UANLTigres UANLTolucaToluca
40%Games with a clean sheet40%
30%Games they failed to score10%
Head-to-head

Past meetings.

Toluca
1–1
Tigres UANL
Tigres UANL
0–0
Toluca
Toluca
2–1
Tigres UANL
Tigres UANL
1–0
Toluca
Toluca
3–4
Tigres UANL
Form check

Their recent form.

Tigres UANL
Tigres UANL
Mixed bag at home
Last 5
1W · 3D · 1L
Tigres UANLvPuebla
1–0
W
FC JuarezvTigres UANL
2–0
L
MonterreyvTigres UANL
0–0
D
Tigres UANLvNecaxa
1–1
D
Santos LagunavTigres UANL
0–0
D
Toluca
Toluca
Winning more than not lately
Last 5
3W · 1D · 1L
Cruz AzulvToluca
3–3
D
TolucavSantos Laguna
2–3
L
PueblavToluca
0–1
W
TolucavAtlas
5–2
W
TolucavFC Juarez
4–0
W
League standings

Where they sit in the table.

Liga MX (Mexico) standings · both teams highlighted in context.

#
Team
P
W
D
L
GD
Pts
1
TolucaToluca
10
6
2
2
+11
20
2
Club AmericaClub America
9
6
2
1
+11
20
3
Guadalajara ChivasGuadalajara Chivas
10
5
3
2
+7
18
4
Club QueretaroClub Queretaro
9
5
2
2
+5
17
5
LeonLeon
10
5
2
3
+3
17
6
AtlasAtlas
10
5
2
3
-1
17
7
Cruz AzulCruz Azul
10
5
1
4
+1
16
8
Club TijuanaClub Tijuana
9
4
2
3
+1
14
9
PueblaPuebla
10
4
2
4
-1
14
10
MonterreyMonterrey
9
4
1
4
+2
13
11
CF PachucaCF Pachuca
10
3
3
4
+4
12
12
U.N.A.M. - PumasU.N.A.M. - Pumas
10
3
3
4
-2
12
13
Atletico San LuisAtletico San Luis
10
3
3
4
-4
12
14
Atlante FCAtlante FC
10
2
5
3
-3
11
15
Tigres UANLTigres UANL
10
2
4
4
-3
10
16
Santos LagunaSantos Laguna
10
3
1
6
-5
10
17
NecaxaNecaxa
10
2
2
6
-8
8
18
FC JuarezFC Juarez
10
1
0
9
-18
3