Toulouse eye historic double as Lyon seek European launch
Toulouse look to climb out of the bottom three while Lyon aim to immediately bridge the gap to the European places in this high-stakes Ligue 1 encounter.
Toulouse enter the match sitting 17th on zero points, currently inside the relegation zone but with 34 games left to secure their top-flight status. They carry momentum into this clash having won three of their last five matches, including a recent 2-1 victory over Strasbourg and a confidence-boosting win against Real Sociedad.
Lyon occupy 10th place and are just one win away from the European spots. While their recent form has been mixed, including a heavy 0-4 defeat to Real Betis and a 1-2 loss to Sparta Praha, they did manage a convincing 2-0 away win against VfL Wolfsburg to demonstrate their threat on the road.
Our model vs the market’s price.
How the public market prices this match, shown next to our model. For context only — it never changes a signal.
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Strength rating and xG.
Elo is overall team strength. xG is the goals an average team would score from the same chances.
One strength number built from every result a team has had. Higher means stronger.
Lyon are the stronger side — 79 rating points clear of Toulouse.
xG = goals an average team would score from the same chances. Scoring well above xG means clinical finishing (or a hot streak).
ToulouseLyonGoals scored and conceded.
Per-game averages this season. Use the buttons to split the goals by venue.
Both teams across every game this season.
ToulouseLyonWhole season, home and away combined — Toulouse 5 games, Lyon 5 games.
ToulouseLyonPast meetings.
Their recent form.
Where they sit in the table.
Ligue 1 (France) standings · both teams highlighted in context.
