Winlytics.AI
Full time
Eliteserien (Norway)
·
Tromso
Tromso
3rd · 38 pts·LDLLW
vs
Valerenga
Valerenga
12th · 23 pts·DLDLD
The story

Tromso chase top spot as Valerenga eye European race

A pivotal clash at the summit sees second-placed Tromso looking to close a two-point gap on the league leaders, while Valerenga aim to bridge the three-point divide to the European qualification spots.

Match news & current form

Jorgen Vik’s Tromso side entered the league break following a goalless draw with KFUM Oslo, but they remain firmly in the title hunt with 17 games remaining. While they haven't secured a league win since their 2-0 triumph over Molde in May, a recent 4-1 friendly victory over Orgryte suggests the squad has maintained sharpness during the hiatus.

Valerenga, managed by Johannes Moesgaard, sit 9th but are within striking distance of the top four. They found momentum before the break with a 3-1 win over Kristiansund BK, though their away form remains a concern following a recent 0-2 defeat at Start and a narrow loss to Ham-Kam.

Head-to-head history

Historical records favor the visitors, with Valerenga winning 27 of the 66 previous meetings compared to Tromso's 20. However, the 'Royal Blues' have only managed one victory over Tromso since May 2022, despite winning the most recent encounter 1-0 in October 2025.

Hot stats & streaks
  • Tromso have averaged 1.90 goals per match across their last 10 home league fixtures.
  • Valerenga have lost three consecutive away matches in the Eliteserien.
  • The visitors have managed to score in each of their last five league outings despite mixed results.
  • Tromso are seeking their first league win since May 10th to keep pace with the leaders.
Key players & missing men

Valerenga face a significant blow with Omar Bully sidelined due to a serious Achilles injury. Midfielder Henrik Bjordal is also a concern following a direct red card, while goalkeeper Magnus Smelhus Sjoeng is battling a knock. Tromso report a clean bill of health, allowing Jorgen Vik to field his strongest XI as they chase their first-ever Eliteserien title.

Subscribers only

Our signal for this match is locked.

We have published a signal on Tromso vs Valerenga — the market, the selection, the price we need and the model’s confidence. Every signal is graded in public, win or lose.

Subscribers only

Every market on this match, priced and ranked.

Our model prices every market we cover on Tromso vs Valerenga and ranks them by the edge against the bookmakers’ price. Subscribers see the full board.

Unlock every market
Market cross-check

Our model vs the market’s price.

How the public market prices this match, shown next to our model. For context only — it never changes a signal.

Our engine
What our AI model sees
Season averages
Tromso2.2
1.1Valerenga
Season average total: 3.26 goals
The market
Public / market price
1X2 probabilities
10%
45%
45%
Tromso winDrawValerenga win
Market call
Double chance : Draw or Valerenga
Elo rating & xG

Strength rating and xG.

Elo is overall team strength. xG is the goals an average team would score from the same chances.

Overall strength (Club Elo)

One strength number built from every result a team has had. Higher means stronger.

Tromso
1497
Valerenga
1377

Tromso are the stronger side — 120 rating points clear of Valerenga.

The scoring picture

Goals scored and conceded.

Per-game averages this season. Use the buttons to split the goals by venue.

Goals per game

Both teams across every game this season.

TromsoTromsoValerengaValerenga
1.90Goals scored / game1.62
1.38Goals conceded / game2.05
How reliable, all season

Whole season, home and away combined — Tromso 21 games, Valerenga 21 games.

TromsoTromsoValerengaValerenga
43%Games with a clean sheet10%
29%Games they failed to score33%
Head-to-head

Past meetings.

Tromso
4–0
Valerenga
Valerenga
1–0
Tromso
Tromso
2–1
Valerenga
Valerenga
1–4
Tromso
Valerenga
1–0
Tromso
Form check

Their recent form.

Tromso
Tromso
Struggling for results
Last 5
1W · 1D · 3L
TromsovHam-Kam
3–2
W
RosenborgvTromso
5–3
L
Kristiansund BKvTromso
2–0
L
TromsovSarpsborg 08 FF
0–0
D
MoldevTromso
3–2
L
Valerenga
Valerenga
Inconsistent on the road
Last 5
0W · 3D · 2L
ValerengavFredrikstad
1–1
D
LillestromvValerenga
2–0
L
Sarpsborg 08 FFvValerenga
2–2
D
ValerengavMolde
3–4
L
AalesundvValerenga
5–5
D
League standings

Where they sit in the table.

Eliteserien (Norway) standings · both teams highlighted in context.

#
Team
P
W
D
L
GD
Pts
1
VikingViking
21
16
2
3
+34
50
2
Bodo/GlimtBodo/Glimt
21
16
2
3
+34
50
3
TromsoTromso
21
11
5
5
+11
38
4
MoldeMolde
21
11
3
7
+12
36
5
RosenborgRosenborg
21
10
3
8
+9
33
6
LillestromLillestrom
21
10
2
9
-1
32
7
BrannBrann
21
9
2
10
+7
29
8
FredrikstadFredrikstad
21
8
4
9
-7
28
9
Sarpsborg 08 FFSarpsborg 08 FF
21
6
7
8
-5
25
10
KFUM OsloKFUM Oslo
21
7
4
10
-10
25
11
SandefjordSandefjord
21
6
5
10
-6
23
12
ValerengaValerenga
21
6
5
10
-9
23
13
Ham-KamHam-Kam
21
6
5
10
-15
23
14
AalesundAalesund
21
4
9
8
-13
21
15
Kristiansund BKKristiansund BK
21
5
4
12
-19
19
16
StartStart
21
4
4
13
-22
16