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Bundesliga (Austria)
·
TSV Hartberg
TSV Hartberg
5th · 17 pts·DWLWW
vs
—
Sturm Graz
Sturm Graz
4th · 19 pts·LWWDD
The story

Sturm Graz hunt three-peat as Hartberg eye Europe

Defending champions Sturm Graz travel to the Profertil Arena looking to assert their dominance against a Hartberg side desperate to bounce back from an opening defeat.

Match news & current form

TSV Hartberg enter this fixture sitting 10th after a narrow 1-0 loss to Red Bull Salzburg. They are currently just one point off the European places with 21 games remaining, but they must overcome a difficult start to the Championship round where they have already suffered two recent defeats against Salzburg and Austria Vienna.

Sturm Graz are aiming for an unprecedented third consecutive Bundesliga title after winning the regular season last year. Currently 8th after a 1-1 draw with WSG Wattens, they remain just zero points off the European places and carry significant momentum, remaining undefeated in their last seven matches across all competitions.

Head-to-head history

Sturm Graz have dominated this fixture recently, winning four and drawing one of their last five meetings against Hartberg. Historically, this match-up has been a guarantee of action, with an all-time average of 3.10 goals scored per direct encounter.

Hot stats & streaks
  • Sturm Graz are undefeated in their last seven matches in all competitions.
  • Direct matches between these two clubs average 3.10 goals per game.
  • Sturm Graz have won 18 of the historical meetings between the two sides.
  • Hartberg have proven resilient on the road recently, winning two and drawing three of their last five away trips.
  • Sturm Graz won the most recent meeting between these sides with a 1-0 scoreline.
Key players & missing men

Both squads appear to have a clean bill of health with no players reported as missing for this clash. Sturm Graz will rely on the core that secured back-to-back titles to break down a Hartberg defence that held firm for long periods against Salzburg last week.

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We have published a signal on TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz — the market, the selection, the price we need and the model’s confidence. Every signal is graded in public, win or lose.

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Every market on this match, priced and ranked.

Our model prices every market we cover on TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz and ranks them by the edge against the bookmakers’ price. Subscribers see the full board.

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Market cross-check

Our model vs the market’s price.

How the public market prices this match, shown next to our model. For context only — it never changes a signal.

Our engine
What our AI model sees
Season averages
TSV Hartberg1.6
–
1.6Sturm Graz
Season average total: 3.17 goals
The market
Public / market price
1X2 probabilities
10%
45%
45%
TSV Hartberg winDrawSturm Graz win
Market call
Double chance : Draw or Sturm Graz
Goals forecast
Under 3.5 goals
Elo rating & xG

Strength rating and xG.

Elo is overall team strength. xG is the goals an average team would score from the same chances.

Overall strength (Club Elo)

One strength number built from every result a team has had. Higher means stronger.

TSV Hartberg
1371
Sturm Graz
1472

Sturm Graz are the stronger side — 101 rating points clear of TSV Hartberg.

The scoring picture

Goals scored and conceded.

Per-game averages this season. Use the buttons to split the goals by venue.

Goals per game

Both teams across every game this season.

TSV HartbergTSV HartbergSturm GrazSturm Graz
1.82Goals scored / game1.73
1.73Goals conceded / game1.18
How reliable, all season

Whole season, home and away combined — TSV Hartberg 11 games, Sturm Graz 11 games.

TSV HartbergTSV HartbergSturm GrazSturm Graz
18%Games with a clean sheet27%
27%Games they failed to score9%
Head-to-head

Past meetings.

TSV Hartberg
0–2
Sturm Graz
TSV Hartberg
2–4
Sturm Graz
Sturm Graz
0–0
TSV Hartberg
TSV Hartberg
0–1
Sturm Graz
Sturm Graz
1–0
TSV Hartberg
Form check

Their recent form.

TSV Hartberg
TSV Hartberg
Winning more than not lately
Last 5
3W · 1D · 1L
Grazer AKvTSV Hartberg
0–4
W
TSV HartbergvWolfsberger AC
1–0
W
Rapid ViennavTSV Hartberg
3–1
L
TSV HartbergvAustria Lustenau
4–3
W
TSV HartbergvLask Linz
3–3
D
Sturm Graz
Sturm Graz
Inconsistent on the road
Last 5
2W · 2D · 1L
Wolfsberger ACvSturm Graz
1–1
D
Sturm GrazvRied
2–2
D
Sturm GrazvGrazer AK
6–1
W
Austria ViennavSturm Graz
0–2
W
Red Bull SalzburgvSturm Graz
3–0
L
League standings

Where they sit in the table.

Bundesliga (Austria) standings · both teams highlighted in context.

#
Team
P
W
D
L
GD
Pts
1
Rapid ViennaRapid Vienna
11
10
0
1
+24
30
2
Red Bull SalzburgRed Bull Salzburg
11
8
3
0
+23
27
3
Lask LinzLask Linz
11
7
1
3
+13
22
4
Sturm GrazSturm Graz
11
5
4
2
+6
19
5
TSV HartbergTSV Hartberg
11
5
2
4
+1
17
6
RiedRied
11
4
4
3
+1
16
7
WSG WattensWSG Wattens
11
3
3
5
-3
12
8
SCR AltachSCR Altach
11
3
1
7
-6
10
9
Grazer AKGrazer AK
11
2
4
5
-19
10
10
Austria LustenauAustria Lustenau
11
2
2
7
-16
8
11
Austria ViennaAustria Vienna
11
2
1
8
-12
7
12
Wolfsberger ACWolfsberger AC
11
1
3
7
-12
6