Separated by just two points early in the campaign, Union Berlin and 1. FC Köln meet for the second time in five days looking to jump-start their Bundesliga forms.
Union Berlin sit 17th on 6 points after 7 games having endured a slow start under Mauro Lustrinelli. They drew 1-1 away at FC Augsburg in their last league outing, finishing with ten men, before being dismantled 5-0 away to Köln in the DFB-Pokal on Tuesday. Lustrinelli's side have managed just one win in their last five outings in all competitions.
René Wagner's 1. FC Köln occupy 12th position on 8 points after 7 games as they find their feet in the top flight. They were held to a 0-0 draw by FC Schalke 04 in their previous league game despite creating the superior chances, but they take considerable momentum into this fixture off the back of Tuesday's resounding five-goal cup triumph against the same opponents.
How the public market prices this match, shown next to our model. For context only — it never changes a signal.
Elo is overall team strength. xG is the goals an average team would score from the same chances.
One strength number built from every result a team has had. Higher means stronger.
Union Berlin are the stronger side — 51 rating points clear of 1. FC Köln.
xG = goals an average team would score from the same chances. Scoring well above xG means clinical finishing (or a hot streak).
Per-game averages this season. Use the buttons to split the goals by venue.
Both teams across every game this season.
Whole season, home and away combined — Union Berlin 7 games, 1. FC Köln 7 games.
Bundesliga (Germany) standings · both teams highlighted in context.