Winlytics.AI
Kicks off in 2d 18h
Bundesliga (Germany)
·
Union Berlin
Union Berlin
17th · 6 pts·LLWDD
vs
—
1. FC Köln
1. FC Köln
12th · 8 pts·DLWLD
The story

Union Berlin host Köln after five-goal cup defeat

Separated by just two points early in the campaign, Union Berlin and 1. FC Köln meet for the second time in five days looking to jump-start their Bundesliga forms.

Match news & current form

Union Berlin sit 17th on 6 points after 7 games having endured a slow start under Mauro Lustrinelli. They drew 1-1 away at FC Augsburg in their last league outing, finishing with ten men, before being dismantled 5-0 away to Köln in the DFB-Pokal on Tuesday. Lustrinelli's side have managed just one win in their last five outings in all competitions.

René Wagner's 1. FC Köln occupy 12th position on 8 points after 7 games as they find their feet in the top flight. They were held to a 0-0 draw by FC Schalke 04 in their previous league game despite creating the superior chances, but they take considerable momentum into this fixture off the back of Tuesday's resounding five-goal cup triumph against the same opponents.

Head-to-head history

Tuesday's 5-0 thrashing in the DFB-Pokal gave Köln a swift boost, but head-to-head encounters in Berlin have favoured the capital club. Their last league meeting at this venue ended in a 2-2 draw in May 2026, while Union won 2-0 back in December 2023.

Hot stats & streaks
  • Köln hit five past Union Berlin just five days ago in the DFB-Pokal.
  • Three of the last four meetings between these two sides have featured at least four goals.
  • Union Berlin have kept only one clean sheet across their last five matches.
Key players & missing men

Union Berlin are without the suspended and injured F. Uduokhai, alongside A. Markgraf, S. Nsoki, A. Ilic, and J. Juranovic. Köln carry their own extensive injury list, with T. Dallinga, T. Hubers, I. Rondic, E. Skhiri, and R. van den Berg all sidelined, while R. Ache is also listed among the absences.

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We have published a signal on Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln — the market, the selection, the price we need and the model’s confidence. Every signal is graded in public, win or lose.

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Every market on this match, priced and ranked.

Our model prices every market we cover on Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln and ranks them by the edge against the bookmakers’ price. Subscribers see the full board.

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Market cross-check

Our model vs the market’s price.

How the public market prices this match, shown next to our model. For context only — it never changes a signal.

Our engine
What our AI model sees
Season averages
Union Berlin1.8
–
1.11. FC Köln
Season average total: 2.88 goals
The market
Public / market price
1X2 probabilities
10%
45%
45%
Union Berlin winDraw1. FC Köln win
Market call
Double chance : Draw or 1. FC Köln
Elo rating & xG

Strength rating and xG.

Elo is overall team strength. xG is the goals an average team would score from the same chances.

Overall strength (Club Elo)

One strength number built from every result a team has had. Higher means stronger.

Union Berlin
1619
1. FC Köln
1568

Union Berlin are the stronger side — 51 rating points clear of 1. FC Köln.

Goals vs xG

xG = goals an average team would score from the same chances. Scoring well above xG means clinical finishing (or a hot streak).

Union BerlinUnion Berlin
Goals scored
1.50
Expected (xG)
1.42
Scoring in line with their xG
Per game · last 10 matches
1. FC Köln1. FC Köln
Goals scored
1.20
Expected (xG)
1.68
Wasteful — scoring below their xG
Per game · last 10 matches
The scoring picture

Goals scored and conceded.

Per-game averages this season. Use the buttons to split the goals by venue.

Goals per game

Both teams across every game this season.

Union BerlinUnion Berlin1. FC Köln1. FC Köln
0.86Goals scored / game1.14
2.57Goals conceded / game1.57
How reliable, all season

Whole season, home and away combined — Union Berlin 7 games, 1. FC Köln 7 games.

Union BerlinUnion Berlin1. FC Köln1. FC Köln
29%Games with a clean sheet14%
43%Games they failed to score29%
Head-to-head

Past meetings.

1. FC Köln
5–0
Union Berlin
Union Berlin
2–2
1. FC Köln
1. FC Köln
0–1
Union Berlin
1. FC Köln
3–2
Union Berlin
Union Berlin
2–0
1. FC Köln
Injuries & suspensions

Who’s out.

Union Berlin
A. Markgraf
Out · Knee Injury
Union Berlin
S. Nsoki
Out · Muscle Injury
Union Berlin
F. Uduokhai
Out · Red Card
Union Berlin
A. Ilic
Doubt · Illness
Form check

Their recent form.

Union Berlin
Union Berlin
Mixed bag at home
Last 5
1W · 2D · 2L
FC AugsburgvUnion Berlin
1–1
D
Union BerlinvBorussia Dortmund
0–0
D
Union BerlinvSV Elversberg
1–0
W
Bayern MünchenvUnion Berlin
7–0
L
Union BerlinvFC Schalke 04
1–3
L
1. FC Köln
1. FC Köln
Inconsistent on the road
Last 5
1W · 2D · 2L
1. FC KölnvFC Schalke 04
0–0
D
Eintracht Frankfurtv1. FC Köln
1–0
L
1. FC KölnvBorussia Mönchengladbach
2–1
W
Hamburger SVv1. FC Köln
2–1
L
1. FC KölnvWerder Bremen
1–1
D
League standings

Where they sit in the table.

Bundesliga (Germany) standings · both teams highlighted in context.

#
Team
P
W
D
L
GD
Pts
1
Bayern MünchenBayern München
7
5
2
0
+19
17
2
Borussia DortmundBorussia Dortmund
7
5
2
0
+8
17
3
SC FreiburgSC Freiburg
7
4
1
2
+7
13
4
Bayer LeverkusenBayer Leverkusen
7
4
1
2
+4
13
5
RB LeipzigRB Leipzig
7
4
0
3
+9
12
6
Werder BremenWerder Bremen
7
3
3
1
+1
12
7
FSV Mainz 05FSV Mainz 05
7
3
1
3
+3
10
8
SV ElversbergSV Elversberg
7
3
1
3
-3
10
9
FC AugsburgFC Augsburg
7
2
3
2
+4
9
10
1899 Hoffenheim1899 Hoffenheim
7
3
0
4
+0
9
11
Hamburger SVHamburger SV
7
3
0
4
-10
9
12
1. FC Köln1. FC Köln
7
2
2
3
-3
8
13
SC Paderborn 07SC Paderborn 07
7
2
2
3
-3
8
14
Eintracht FrankfurtEintracht Frankfurt
7
2
2
3
-7
8
15
VfB StuttgartVfB Stuttgart
7
2
0
5
-3
6
16
FC Schalke 04FC Schalke 04
7
1
3
3
-3
6
17
Union BerlinUnion Berlin
7
1
3
3
-12
6
18
Borussia MönchengladbachBorussia Mönchengladbach
7
1
0
6
-11
3