Winlytics.AI
Full time
Bundesliga (Germany)
·
Union Berlin
Union Berlin
17th · 1 pts·DLLL
vs
—
FC Schalke 04
FC Schalke 04
11th · 5 pts·LDWD
The story

Union and Schalke hunt first win of the season

Two sides with identical records meet at the Stadion An der Alten Försterei as they both look to ignite their Bundesliga campaigns after picking up one point from their opening two fixtures.

Match news & current form

Union Berlin sit 15th in the table, three points off the continental qualification places. Mauro Lustrinelli’s side have experienced a polarising start to the season, following up a resilient 3-3 comeback draw against Eintracht Frankfurt with a heavy 0-4 defeat away at Bayer Leverkusen last weekend.

FC Schalke 04 are 14th, also three points away from the continental spots. Managed by Miron Muslic, the reigning second-division champions are yet to score this season but will take immense confidence from holding Bayern München to a 0-0 draw last time out, following an opening 0-3 loss to FC Augsburg.

Head-to-head history

Historical trends at the Stadion An der Alten Försterei favour the visitors; Union Berlin have never won a home match against Schalke 04, with three of their four meetings at this venue ending in draws. The most recent encounter between the two clubs in February 2023 ended in a 0-0 stalemate.

Hot stats & streaks
  • Union Berlin have conceded seven goals in their first two matches of the season.
  • Schalke are one of only three Bundesliga teams yet to register a goal this term.
  • Union Berlin have the fourth-best shot-to-target accuracy in the league at 41.7%.
  • Miron Muslic’s Schalke have committed the fewest fouls (11) in the Bundesliga so far.
Key players & missing men

Union Berlin are without a significant list of players including O. Burke, M. Friedrich, A. Ilic, S. Nsoki, and K. Imeri. Defender Andrik Markgraf is a long-term absentee with a cruciate ligament injury. Schalke will be missing defensive midfielder Ron Schallenberg due to an upgraded two-match suspension, while T. Kalas is also unavailable.

Subscribers only

Our signal for this match is locked.

We have published a signal on Union Berlin vs FC Schalke 04 — the market, the selection, the price we need and the model’s confidence. Every signal is graded in public, win or lose.

Subscribers only

Every market on this match, priced and ranked.

Our model prices every market we cover on Union Berlin vs FC Schalke 04 and ranks them by the edge against the bookmakers’ price. Subscribers see the full board.

Unlock every market
Market cross-check

Our model vs the market’s price.

How the public market prices this match, shown next to our model. For context only — it never changes a signal.

Our engine
What our AI model sees
Season averages
Union Berlin2.0
–
2.3FC Schalke 04
Season average total: 4.25 goals
The market
Public / market price
1X2 probabilities
45%
45%
10%
Union Berlin winDrawFC Schalke 04 win
Market call
Winner : Union Berlin
Elo rating & xG

Strength rating and xG.

Elo is overall team strength. xG is the goals an average team would score from the same chances.

Overall strength (Club Elo)

One strength number built from every result a team has had. Higher means stronger.

Union Berlin
1619
FC Schalke 04
1520

Union Berlin are the stronger side — 100 rating points clear of FC Schalke 04.

Goals vs xG

xG = goals an average team would score from the same chances. Scoring well above xG means clinical finishing (or a hot streak).

Union BerlinUnion Berlin
Goals scored
1.60
Expected (xG)
1.51
Scoring in line with their xG
Per game · last 10 matches
No xG data for FC Schalke 04
The scoring picture

Goals scored and conceded.

Per-game averages this season. Use the buttons to split the goals by venue.

Goals per game

Both teams across every game this season.

Union BerlinUnion BerlinFC Schalke 04FC Schalke 04
1.00Goals scored / game0.75
4.25Goals conceded / game1.00
How reliable, all season

Whole season, home and away combined — Union Berlin 4 games, FC Schalke 04 4 games.

Union BerlinUnion BerlinFC Schalke 04FC Schalke 04
0%Games with a clean sheet50%
50%Games they failed to score75%
Head-to-head

Past meetings.

Union Berlin
1–3
FC Schalke 04
Union Berlin
0–0
FC Schalke 04
FC Schalke 04
1–6
Union Berlin
Union Berlin
0–0
FC Schalke 04
FC Schalke 04
1–1
Union Berlin
Form check

Their recent form.

Union Berlin
Union Berlin
Struggling for results
Last 5
0W · 1D · 3L
Bayern MünchenvUnion Berlin
7–0
L
Union BerlinvFC Schalke 04
1–3
L
Bayer LeverkusenvUnion Berlin
4–0
L
Union BerlinvEintracht Frankfurt
3–3
D
FC Schalke 04
FC Schalke 04
Inconsistent on the road
Last 5
1W · 2D · 1L
FC Schalke 04vSV Elversberg
0–0
D
Union BerlinvFC Schalke 04
1–3
W
FC Schalke 04vBayern München
0–0
D
FC AugsburgvFC Schalke 04
3–0
L
League standings

Where they sit in the table.

Bundesliga (Germany) standings · both teams highlighted in context.

#
Team
P
W
D
L
GD
Pts
1
Borussia DortmundBorussia Dortmund
4
4
0
0
+7
12
2
Bayern MünchenBayern München
4
3
1
0
+12
10
3
SC FreiburgSC Freiburg
4
3
1
0
+9
10
4
FC AugsburgFC Augsburg
4
2
1
1
+5
7
5
Bayer LeverkusenBayer Leverkusen
4
2
1
1
+5
7
6
FSV Mainz 05FSV Mainz 05
4
2
1
1
+4
7
7
SV ElversbergSV Elversberg
4
2
1
1
+1
7
8
Werder BremenWerder Bremen
4
2
1
1
+0
7
9
RB LeipzigRB Leipzig
4
2
0
2
+4
6
10
Eintracht FrankfurtEintracht Frankfurt
4
1
2
1
-1
5
11
FC Schalke 04FC Schalke 04
4
1
2
1
-1
5
12
SC Paderborn 07SC Paderborn 07
4
1
1
2
-2
4
13
1. FC Köln1. FC Köln
4
1
1
2
-3
4
14
1899 Hoffenheim1899 Hoffenheim
4
1
0
3
-3
3
15
VfB StuttgartVfB Stuttgart
4
1
0
3
-3
3
16
Hamburger SVHamburger SV
4
1
0
3
-11
3
17
Union BerlinUnion Berlin
4
0
1
3
-13
1
18
Borussia MönchengladbachBorussia Mönchengladbach
4
0
0
4
-10
0