Winlytics.AI
Full time
Serie A (Italy)
·
Venezia
Venezia
20th · 0 pts·LLLLL
vs
Fiorentina
Fiorentina
17th · 4 pts·LLLWD
The story

Vanoli returns to Venice as Serie A strugglers collide

Both Venezia and Fiorentina arrive at the Stadio Penzo desperate to secure their first points of the campaign and move out of the early-season relegation zone.

Match news & current form

Venezia sit 18th on 0 points after three matches, having suffered a narrow 3-2 defeat to Frosinone last time out. Despite the slow start, manager Giovanni Stroppa retains the board's backing after leading the club to the Serie B title in May. The Lagunari have looked competitive in spells but are still searching for the defensive solidity that defined their promotion campaign.

Fiorentina are currently 20th and bottom of the table after three consecutive losses, most recently a 0-4 thumping by AS Roma. The 'Viola' board took drastic action this week, sacking Fabio Grosso after just four competitive matches. Paolo Vanoli has been re-appointed to steady the ship, returning to the club he previously steered to safety as interim coach last season.

Head-to-head history

Venezia have enjoyed the better of this fixture recently at the Stadio Penzo, winning the last meeting between the two sides 2-1 in May 2025. Fiorentina have failed to score in two of the last four encounters, including a 0-0 draw in August 2024 and a 1-0 defeat in Venice back in 2021.

Hot stats & streaks
  • Fiorentina have lost three consecutive Serie A matches without scoring a single goal.
  • Venezia have lost their first three games of the season for the first time since their return to the top flight.
  • Paolo Vanoli faces his former club Venezia, the side he promoted to Serie A before departing for Torino.
  • Both teams occupy the bottom three of the table with 35 games remaining in the season.
Key players & missing men

Venezia face a defensive crisis with Armel Bella-Kotchap, Marin Sverko, and Bartol Franjic all ruled out, while new signings Pasquale Mazzocchi and Juan Jesus are likely only fit for the bench. Andrea Adorante remains sidelined. Fiorentina will hope for an immediate impact from deadline-day arrivals Beto, Willy Gnonto, and Alieu Njie, though they remain without long-term absentee Fabiano Parisi and Riccardo Sottil.

Subscribers only

Our signal for this match is locked.

We have published a signal on Venezia vs Fiorentina — the market, the selection, the price we need and the model’s confidence. Every signal is graded in public, win or lose.

Subscribers only

Every market on this match, priced and ranked.

Our model prices every market we cover on Venezia vs Fiorentina and ranks them by the edge against the bookmakers’ price. Subscribers see the full board.

Unlock every market
Market cross-check

Our model vs the market’s price.

How the public market prices this match, shown next to our model. For context only — it never changes a signal.

Our engine
What our AI model sees
Season averages
Venezia1.8
2.3Fiorentina
Season average total: 4.17 goals
The market
Public / market price
1X2 probabilities
45%
45%
10%
Venezia winDrawFiorentina win
Market call
Double chance : Venezia or Draw
Elo rating & xG

Strength rating and xG.

Elo is overall team strength. xG is the goals an average team would score from the same chances.

Overall strength (Club Elo)

One strength number built from every result a team has had. Higher means stronger.

Venezia
1599
Fiorentina
1670

Fiorentina are the stronger side — 71 rating points clear of Venezia.

Goals vs xG

xG = goals an average team would score from the same chances. Scoring well above xG means clinical finishing (or a hot streak).

VeneziaVenezia
Goals scored
0.80
Expected (xG)
1.81
Wasteful — scoring below their xG
Per game · last 5 matches
FiorentinaFiorentina
Goals scored
0.90
Expected (xG)
1.23
Wasteful — scoring below their xG
Per game · last 10 matches
The scoring picture

Goals scored and conceded.

Per-game averages this season. Use the buttons to split the goals by venue.

Goals per game

Both teams across every game this season.

VeneziaVeneziaFiorentinaFiorentina
0.80Goals scored / game1.20
2.60Goals conceded / game2.40
How reliable, all season

Whole season, home and away combined — Venezia 5 games, Fiorentina 5 games.

VeneziaVeneziaFiorentinaFiorentina
0%Games with a clean sheet0%
60%Games they failed to score40%
Head-to-head

Past meetings.

Venezia
2–4
Fiorentina
Venezia
2–1
Fiorentina
Fiorentina
0–0
Venezia
Fiorentina
1–0
Venezia
Venezia
1–0
Fiorentina
Form check

Their recent form.

Venezia
Venezia
Losing form badly
Last 5
0W · 0D · 5L
VeneziavLazio
0–2
L
VeneziavFiorentina
2–4
L
FrosinonevVenezia
3–2
L
AC MilanvVenezia
2–0
L
VeneziavLecce
0–2
L
Fiorentina
Fiorentina
Struggling for results
Last 5
1W · 1D · 3L
FiorentinavNapoli
1–1
D
VeneziavFiorentina
2–4
W
FiorentinavTorino
1–2
L
FiorentinavFrosinone
0–3
L
AS RomavFiorentina
4–0
L
League standings

Where they sit in the table.

Serie A (Italy) standings · both teams highlighted in context.

#
Team
P
W
D
L
GD
Pts
1
AS RomaAS Roma
5
4
1
0
+11
13
2
InterInter
5
4
1
0
+7
13
3
LazioLazio
5
4
1
0
+5
13
4
CagliariCagliari
5
4
0
1
+3
12
5
AC MilanAC Milan
5
3
2
0
+6
11
6
FrosinoneFrosinone
5
3
1
1
+5
10
7
JuventusJuventus
5
3
1
1
+4
10
8
ComoComo
5
3
1
1
+3
10
9
NapoliNapoli
5
2
1
2
+1
7
10
SassuoloSassuolo
5
2
1
2
+0
7
11
AtalantaAtalanta
5
2
0
3
-2
6
12
LecceLecce
5
2
0
3
-5
6
13
UdineseUdinese
5
1
1
3
-3
4
14
TorinoTorino
5
1
1
3
-3
4
15
ParmaParma
5
1
1
3
-3
4
16
MonzaMonza
5
1
1
3
-4
4
17
FiorentinaFiorentina
5
1
1
3
-6
4
18
BolognaBologna
5
0
2
3
-3
2
19
GenoaGenoa
5
0
1
4
-7
1
20
VeneziaVenezia
5
0
0
5
-9
0