Winlytics.AI
Full time
Serie A (Italy)
·
Venezia
Venezia
20th · 0 pts·LLLLL
vs
Lazio
Lazio
3rd · 13 pts·WWWDW
The story

Winless Venezia host in-form Lazio at the Penzo

Bottom-placed Venezia search for their first point of the season against a Lazio side enjoying their joint-best start to a century.

Match news & current form

Venezia sit 20th in Serie A with zero points after four matches, having suffered five consecutive defeats across all competitions. Giovanni Stroppa’s side comes into this fixture following a 4-2 loss to Fiorentina, a result that highlighted a defensive fragility which has seen them concede 11 times in the opening month of the campaign.

Lazio occupy 4th place with 10 points from four games, matching their best start to a season since 2017-18. Under Gennaro Gattuso, the side is unbeaten in four matches, most recently drawing 2-2 with AC Milan following three straight victories over Udinese, Genoa, and Bologna.

Head-to-head history

While Venezia have historically performed well at home against Lazio—winning eight of 16 meetings at the Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo—the recent record leans heavily toward the visitors. A quarter of a century has passed since Venezia last recorded a league win over the Biancocelesti, with Lazio winning three of the last four Serie A encounters including a 3-1 victory in their most recent trip to Venice.

Hot stats & streaks
  • Venezia are on a run of five consecutive league defeats and have yet to register a point.
  • Lazio are unbeaten in their last four matches, winning three and drawing one.
  • Venezia have conceded goals in six consecutive matches across all competitions.
  • Most of Venezia's 11 goals conceded this season have arrived inside the final 30 minutes of play.
  • Lazio have won three of the last four Serie A meetings between these sides.
Key players & missing men

Davide Frattesi has been the standout performer for Lazio, netting decisive goals in the opening rounds of the season. However, Gennaro Gattuso faces a selection headache with several players sidelined, including Patric, L. Pellegrini, N. Rovella, F. Dele-Bashiru, and A. Furlanetto. Venezia are also depleted, missing A. Adorante, T. Basic, A. Bella-Kotchap, G. Busio, M. Dagasso, and B. Franjic.

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Market cross-check

Our model vs the market’s price.

How the public market prices this match, shown next to our model. For context only — it never changes a signal.

Our engine
What our AI model sees
Season averages
Venezia0.5
2.2Lazio
Season average total: 2.67 goals
The market
Public / market price
1X2 probabilities
0%
50%
50%
Venezia winDrawLazio win
Market call
Winner : Lazio
Elo rating & xG

Strength rating and xG.

Elo is overall team strength. xG is the goals an average team would score from the same chances.

Overall strength (Club Elo)

One strength number built from every result a team has had. Higher means stronger.

Venezia
1599
Lazio
1703

Lazio are the stronger side — 104 rating points clear of Venezia.

Goals vs xG

xG = goals an average team would score from the same chances. Scoring well above xG means clinical finishing (or a hot streak).

VeneziaVenezia
Goals scored
0.80
Expected (xG)
1.81
Wasteful — scoring below their xG
Per game · last 5 matches
LazioLazio
Goals scored
1.50
Expected (xG)
1.41
Scoring in line with their xG
Per game · last 10 matches
The scoring picture

Goals scored and conceded.

Per-game averages this season. Use the buttons to split the goals by venue.

Goals per game

Both teams across every game this season.

VeneziaVeneziaLazioLazio
0.80Goals scored / game1.60
2.60Goals conceded / game0.60
How reliable, all season

Whole season, home and away combined — Venezia 5 games, Lazio 5 games.

VeneziaVeneziaLazioLazio
0%Games with a clean sheet60%
60%Games they failed to score0%
Head-to-head

Past meetings.

Venezia
0–2
Lazio
Venezia
0–0
Lazio
Lazio
3–1
Venezia
Lazio
Venezia
Lazio
1–0
Venezia
Form check

Their recent form.

Venezia
Venezia
Losing form badly
Last 5
0W · 0D · 5L
VeneziavLazio
0–2
L
VeneziavFiorentina
2–4
L
FrosinonevVenezia
3–2
L
AC MilanvVenezia
2–0
L
VeneziavLecce
0–2
L
Lazio
Lazio
On a strong winning run
Last 5
4W · 1D · 0L
VeneziavLazio
0–2
W
LaziovAC Milan
2–2
D
UdinesevLazio
1–2
W
LaziovGenoa
1–0
W
BolognavLazio
0–1
W
League standings

Where they sit in the table.

Serie A (Italy) standings · both teams highlighted in context.

#
Team
P
W
D
L
GD
Pts
1
AS RomaAS Roma
5
4
1
0
+11
13
2
InterInter
5
4
1
0
+7
13
3
LazioLazio
5
4
1
0
+5
13
4
CagliariCagliari
5
4
0
1
+3
12
5
AC MilanAC Milan
5
3
2
0
+6
11
6
FrosinoneFrosinone
5
3
1
1
+5
10
7
JuventusJuventus
5
3
1
1
+4
10
8
ComoComo
5
3
1
1
+3
10
9
NapoliNapoli
5
2
1
2
+1
7
10
SassuoloSassuolo
5
2
1
2
+0
7
11
AtalantaAtalanta
5
2
0
3
-2
6
12
LecceLecce
5
2
0
3
-5
6
13
UdineseUdinese
5
1
1
3
-3
4
14
TorinoTorino
5
1
1
3
-3
4
15
ParmaParma
5
1
1
3
-3
4
16
MonzaMonza
5
1
1
3
-4
4
17
FiorentinaFiorentina
5
1
1
3
-6
4
18
BolognaBologna
5
0
2
3
-3
2
19
GenoaGenoa
5
0
1
4
-7
1
20
VeneziaVenezia
5
0
0
5
-9
0