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Primeira Liga (Portugal)
·
Vitória SC
Vitória SC
14th · 5 pts·WLDLD
vs
—
Nacional
Nacional
15th · 4 pts·LLLLL
The story

Vitória seek survival spark against high-flying Nacional

A desperate Vitória SC side enters the relegation zone seeking their first points of the season against a Nacional outfit currently occupying a continental qualification spot.

Match news & current form

Vitória SC find themselves 16th in the table with zero points after two matches, currently sitting inside the relegation zone with 32 games left to save their season. They enter this clash following a narrow 3-2 defeat away at Sporting CP and a 1-0 home loss to Arouca, leaving them desperate to snap a losing streak that dates back to the end of the previous calendar year.

Nacional arrive at the Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques in 5th place, holding a continental spot with four points from their opening two fixtures. They have shown resilience early on, following up a 2-2 draw against Santa Clara with a convincing 2-0 victory over Estoril last time out, though they remain just two points above the drop zone in a tightly packed early table.

Head-to-head history

Vitória have historically found comfort in this fixture, particularly at the Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques. In their most recent meeting at the Estadio da Madeira, Vitória secured a 2-1 victory, maintaining a psychological edge over the Madeira-based side.

Hot stats & streaks
  • Vitória SC are looking to avoid three consecutive league defeats to start the campaign.
  • Nacional have picked up four points from their last two matches after failing to win any of the five league games preceding that run.
  • Vitória SC's last outing was a five-goal thriller against Sporting CP, ending a trend of low-scoring affairs.
  • Nacional have struggled for consistency on their travels, recently suffering a 2-0 defeat away at Santa Clara.
Key players & missing men

Vitória SC will be forced to reshape their midfield as Beni Mukendi remains unavailable due to international duty at the Africa Cup of Nations. Both sides otherwise report no fresh injury concerns from their previous league outings, allowing managers to field near-full-strength lineups for this critical early-season encounter.

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Our signal for this match is locked.

We have published a signal on Vitória SC vs Nacional — the market, the selection, the price we need and the model’s confidence. Every signal is graded in public, win or lose.

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Every market on this match, priced and ranked.

Our model prices every market we cover on Vitória SC vs Nacional and ranks them by the edge against the bookmakers’ price. Subscribers see the full board.

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Market cross-check

Our model vs the market’s price.

How the public market prices this match, shown next to our model. For context only — it never changes a signal.

Our engine
What our AI model sees
Season averages
Vitória SC1.1
–
0.6Nacional
Season average total: 1.67 goals
The market
Public / market price
1X2 probabilities
10%
45%
45%
Vitória SC winDrawNacional win
Market call
Double chance : Draw or Nacional
Elo rating & xG

Strength rating and xG.

Elo is overall team strength. xG is the goals an average team would score from the same chances.

Overall strength (Club Elo)

One strength number built from every result a team has had. Higher means stronger.

Vitória SC
1516
Nacional
1451

Vitória SC are the stronger side — 65 rating points clear of Nacional.

The scoring picture

Goals scored and conceded.

Per-game averages this season. Use the buttons to split the goals by venue.

Goals per game

Both teams across every game this season.

Vitória SCVitória SCNacionalNacional
0.71Goals scored / game1.00
1.14Goals conceded / game2.14
How reliable, all season

Whole season, home and away combined — Vitória SC 7 games, Nacional 7 games.

Vitória SCVitória SCNacionalNacional
29%Games with a clean sheet14%
43%Games they failed to score43%
Head-to-head

Past meetings.

Vitória SC
1–0
Nacional
Nacional
2–0
Vitória SC
Vitória SC
2–1
Nacional
Nacional
1–2
Vitória SC
Vitória SC
2–2
Nacional
Form check

Their recent form.

Vitória SC
Vitória SC
Mixed bag at home
Last 5
1W · 2D · 2L
Vitória SCvMoreirense
1–1
D
Academico ViseuvVitória SC
2–1
L
Vitória SCvCasa Pia
0–0
D
SC BragavVitória SC
1–0
L
Vitória SCvNacional
1–0
W
Nacional
Nacional
Losing form badly
Last 5
0W · 0D · 5L
NacionalvFamalicao
0–4
L
NacionalvAlverca
1–3
L
Sporting CPvNacional
2–0
L
NacionalvEstrela
2–3
L
Vitória SCvNacional
1–0
L
League standings

Where they sit in the table.

Primeira Liga (Portugal) standings · both teams highlighted in context.

#
Team
P
W
D
L
GD
Pts
1
FC PortoFC Porto
7
7
0
0
+15
21
2
BenficaBenfica
7
5
1
1
+15
16
3
Sporting CPSporting CP
7
4
3
0
+9
15
4
Santa ClaraSanta Clara
7
4
3
0
+7
15
5
AroucaArouca
7
3
2
2
+3
11
6
SC BragaSC Braga
6
3
2
1
+2
11
7
Academico ViseuAcademico Viseu
7
3
2
2
+0
11
8
EstrelaEstrela
7
2
4
1
+0
10
9
GIL VicenteGIL Vicente
6
2
2
2
+0
8
10
AlvercaAlverca
7
2
2
3
-2
8
11
MaritimoMaritimo
7
2
2
3
-4
8
12
MoreirenseMoreirense
7
2
2
3
-6
8
13
FamalicaoFamalicao
7
1
4
2
+2
7
14
Vitória SCVitória SC
7
1
2
4
-3
5
15
NacionalNacional
7
1
1
5
-8
4
16
Rio AveRio Ave
7
1
1
5
-10
4
17
Casa PiaCasa Pia
7
1
1
5
-13
4
18
EstorilEstoril
7
0
2
5
-7
2