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Serie A (Brazil)
·
Vitoria
Vitoria
13th · 33 pts·LLWDL
vs
—
Palmeiras
Palmeiras
2nd · 57 pts·WDDWD
The story

Palmeiras title charge tested by resilient Vitoria

League leaders Palmeiras travel to the Barradao needing a response to maintain their six-point cushion at the summit, while Vitoria fight to distance themselves from the relegation scrap.

Match news & current form

Vitoria enter this fixture 13th in the table on 26 points, just six clear of the drop zone with 20 matches remaining. They are looking to recover from a 2-0 defeat at Remo, a match where they dominated 65% of possession but were undone by collective defensive lapses. Managerial focus has shifted heavily to set-piece discipline following that loss, an area identified as a critical weakness ahead of facing the league's most clinical sides.

Palmeiras remain in control of the title race with 44 points, but their lead over Flamengo was trimmed recently following a 2-1 home defeat to Atletico-MG. Before that setback, the Verdao had been in imperious form with three consecutive wins over Coritiba, Chapecoense, and Flamengo. They arrive with a nine-game scoring streak but face pressure to prove their resilience away from home after failing to win their last outing.

Head-to-head history

Recent encounters have been dominated by the aerial threat of the visitors; in the first half of the season, Palmeiras secured victory through set-piece goals from defenders Murilo and Gustavo Gomez. Historically, this fixture produces goals, with over 2.5 goals scored in 78% of their past meetings.

Hot stats & streaks
  • Palmeiras have found the net in nine consecutive matches heading into this fixture.
  • Vitoria have won two of their last three home games, including clean-sheet victories over Internacional and Vasco da Gama.
  • 78% of the historical head-to-head meetings between these two sides have seen three or more goals.
  • Palmeiras have scored nine goals across their last five league outings.
Key players & missing men

Vitoria are dealing with a significant absentee list including Camutanga, Dudu, Edu, Nathan Mendes, R. Ramos, and Anderson. The hosts will rely on their home support to bridge the gap in squad depth. Palmeiras are missing Jefte and J. Lopez, but they welcome back their primary goal-scoring threats in defense, Murilo and Gustavo Gomez, who both scored in the reverse fixture.

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Market cross-check

Our model vs the market’s price.

How the public market prices this match, shown next to our model. For context only — it never changes a signal.

Our engine
What our AI model sees
Season averages
Vitoria1.1
–
1.1Palmeiras
Season average total: 2.20 goals
The market
Public / market price
1X2 probabilities
10%
45%
45%
Vitoria winDrawPalmeiras win
Market call
Double chance : Draw or Palmeiras
Goals forecast
Under 3.5 goals
The scoring picture

Goals scored and conceded.

Per-game averages this season. Use the buttons to split the goals by venue.

Goals per game

Both teams across every game this season.

VitoriaVitoriaPalmeirasPalmeiras
1.00Goals scored / game1.68
1.44Goals conceded / game0.75
How reliable, all season

Whole season, home and away combined — Vitoria 27 games, Palmeiras 28 games.

VitoriaVitoriaPalmeirasPalmeiras
37%Games with a clean sheet43%
33%Games they failed to score14%
Head-to-head

Past meetings.

No prior meetings on record.

Form check

Their recent form.

Vitoria
Vitoria
Struggling for results
Last 5
1W · 1D · 3L
VitoriavCruzeiro
1–3
L
MirassolvVitoria
2–2
D
VitoriavGremio
1–0
W
Atletico-MGvVitoria
2–1
L
VitoriavBahia
0–2
L
Palmeiras
Palmeiras
Inconsistent on the road
Last 5
2W · 3D · 0L
GremiovPalmeiras
0–0
D
PalmeirasvSao Paulo
2–0
W
BotafogovPalmeiras
0–0
D
MirassolvPalmeiras
1–1
D
PalmeirasvVasco DA Gama
4–1
W
League standings

Where they sit in the table.

Serie A (Brazil) standings · both teams highlighted in context.

#
Team
P
W
D
L
GD
Pts
1
FlamengoFlamengo
27
17
6
4
+31
57
2
PalmeirasPalmeiras
28
16
9
3
+26
57
3
FluminenseFluminense
28
13
9
6
+8
48
4
Atletico ParanaenseAtletico Paranaense
27
13
7
7
+10
46
5
BahiaBahia
27
12
10
5
+9
46
6
CruzeiroCruzeiro
28
13
6
9
+2
45
7
Atletico-MGAtletico-MG
27
11
7
9
+4
40
8
SantosSantos
27
10
8
9
+1
38
9
CoritibaCoritiba
28
10
8
10
-6
38
10
RB BragantinoRB Bragantino
26
10
6
10
+3
36
11
Sao PauloSao Paulo
27
10
6
11
+2
36
12
BotafogoBotafogo
28
9
8
11
-4
35
13
VitoriaVitoria
28
9
6
13
-14
33
14
CorinthiansCorinthians
28
8
8
12
-3
32
15
MirassolMirassol
28
8
8
12
-9
32
16
Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama
27
8
7
12
-7
31
17
GremioGremio
28
7
8
13
-8
29
18
InternacionalInternacional
28
6
10
12
-6
28
19
RemoRemo
28
5
8
15
-15
23
20
Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc
27
3
9
15
-24
18