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Serie A (Brazil)
·
Vitoria
Vitoria
13th · 33 pts·LLWDL
vs
Vasco DA Gama
Vasco DA Gama
16th · 31 pts·LWLWW
The story

Six-pointer at Barradas as relegation rivals fight for safety

A high-stakes survival battle sees 13th-placed Vitoria host 17th-placed Vasco da Gama with both sides desperate to distance themselves from the drop zone.

Match news & current form

Vitoria enter this clash sitting 13th on 22 points, just four points clear of the relegation zone with 21 games still to play. Survival is far from guaranteed, but they have found a groove at home, winning their last two matches at the Estádio Manoel Barradas against Internacional and Coritiba. However, they must bounce back from a 3-1 away defeat to Santos last time out.

Vasco da Gama are in more immediate peril, occupying 17th place with 20 points. They are only two points above the drop and have struggled for consistency, losing three of their last five league fixtures. Following a heavy 3-0 defeat to RB Bragantino and a narrow 1-0 loss to Atletico-MG, Vasco are searching for their first win since beating Atletico Paranaense.

Hot stats & streaks
  • Vitoria are chasing a third consecutive home victory in Serie A.
  • Gabriel Baralhas has been clinical at home, scoring three goals in his last nine league appearances at the Estádio Manoel Barradas.
  • Vitoria have failed to cover the 5.5 corners line in six straight home matches.
  • Vasco da Gama have conceded fewer than 5.5 corners in each of their last eight away fixtures.
Key players & missing men

Vitoria's Gabriel Baralhas is the man to watch in the final third, while the hosts will have to navigate a significant injury list including Anderson, Camutanga, A. Cantalapiedra, Dudu, Edu, and Matheusinho. Vasco da Gama are also depleted in midfield, missing both Jair and Mateus Carvalho for this crucial trip.

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Market cross-check

Our model vs the market’s price.

How the public market prices this match, shown next to our model. For context only — it never changes a signal.

Our engine
What our AI model sees
Season averages
Vitoria1.5
0.8Vasco DA Gama
Season average total: 2.38 goals
The market
Public / market price
1X2 probabilities
45%
45%
10%
Vitoria winDrawVasco DA Gama win
Market call
Winner : Vitoria
The scoring picture

Goals scored and conceded.

Per-game averages this season. Use the buttons to split the goals by venue.

Goals per game

Both teams across every game this season.

VitoriaVitoriaVasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama
1.00Goals scored / game1.26
1.44Goals conceded / game1.52
How reliable, all season

Whole season, home and away combined — Vitoria 27 games, Vasco DA Gama 27 games.

VitoriaVitoriaVasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama
37%Games with a clean sheet11%
33%Games they failed to score30%
Head-to-head

Past meetings.

Vitoria
0–2
Vasco DA Gama
Vasco DA Gama
1–0
Vitoria
Vitoria
1–0
Vasco DA Gama
Vasco DA Gama
4–3
Vitoria
Vitoria
2–1
Vasco DA Gama
Form check

Their recent form.

Vitoria
Vitoria
Struggling for results
Last 5
1W · 1D · 3L
VitoriavCruzeiro
1–3
L
MirassolvVitoria
2–2
D
VitoriavGremio
1–0
W
Atletico-MGvVitoria
2–1
L
VitoriavBahia
0–2
L
Vasco DA Gama
Vasco DA Gama
Winning more than not lately
Last 5
3W · 0D · 2L
Vasco DA GamavCoritiba
5–0
W
GremiovVasco DA Gama
1–2
W
FluminensevVasco DA Gama
1–0
L
Vasco DA GamavCruzeiro
3–1
W
PalmeirasvVasco DA Gama
4–1
L
League standings

Where they sit in the table.

Serie A (Brazil) standings · both teams highlighted in context.

#
Team
P
W
D
L
GD
Pts
1
FlamengoFlamengo
27
17
6
4
+31
57
2
PalmeirasPalmeiras
28
16
9
3
+26
57
3
FluminenseFluminense
28
13
9
6
+8
48
4
Atletico ParanaenseAtletico Paranaense
27
13
7
7
+10
46
5
BahiaBahia
27
12
10
5
+9
46
6
CruzeiroCruzeiro
28
13
6
9
+2
45
7
Atletico-MGAtletico-MG
27
11
7
9
+4
40
8
SantosSantos
27
10
8
9
+1
38
9
CoritibaCoritiba
28
10
8
10
-6
38
10
RB BragantinoRB Bragantino
26
10
6
10
+3
36
11
Sao PauloSao Paulo
27
10
6
11
+2
36
12
BotafogoBotafogo
28
9
8
11
-4
35
13
VitoriaVitoria
28
9
6
13
-14
33
14
CorinthiansCorinthians
28
8
8
12
-3
32
15
MirassolMirassol
28
8
8
12
-9
32
16
Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama
27
8
7
12
-7
31
17
GremioGremio
28
7
8
13
-8
29
18
InternacionalInternacional
28
6
10
12
-6
28
19
RemoRemo
28
5
8
15
-15
23
20
Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc
27
3
9
15
-24
18